De-paradox Tree: Breaking Down Simpson's Paradox via A Kernel-Based Partition Algorithm

Real-world observational datasets and machine learning have revolutionized data-driven decision-making, yet many models rely on empirical associations that may be misleading due to confounding and subgroup heterogeneity. Simpson's paradox exemplifies this challenge, where aggregated and subgroup-level associations contradict each other, leading to misleading conclusions. Existing methods provide limited support for detecting and interpreting such paradoxical associations, especially for practitioners without deep causal expertise. We introduce De-paradox Tree, an interpretable algorithm designed to uncover hidden subgroup patterns behind paradoxical associations under assumed causal structures involving confounders and effect heterogeneity. It employs novel split criteria and balancing-based procedures to adjust for confounders and homogenize heterogeneous effects through recursive partitioning. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, De-paradox Tree builds simpler, more interpretable trees, selects relevant covariates, and identifies nested opposite effects while ensuring robust estimation of causal effects when causally admissible variables are provided. Our approach addresses the limitations of traditional causal inference and machine learning methods by introducing an interpretable framework that supports non-expert practitioners while explicitly acknowledging causal assumptions and scope limitations, enabling more reliable and informed decision-making in complex observational data environments.

Understanding and Mitigating Risks of Generative AI in Financial Services

To responsibly develop Generative AI (GenAI) products, it is critical to define the scope of acceptable inputs and outputs. What constitutes a "safe" response is an actively debated question. Academic work puts an outsized focus on evaluating models by themselves for general purpose aspects such as toxicity, bias, and fairness, especially in conversational applications being used by a broad audience. In contrast, less focus is put on considering sociotechnical systems in specialized domains. Yet, those specialized systems can be subject to extensive and well-understood legal and regulatory scrutiny. These product-specific considerations need to be set in industry-specific laws, regulations, and corporate governance requirements. In this paper, we aim to highlight AI content safety considerations specific to the financial services domain and outline an associated AI content risk taxonomy. We compare this taxonomy to existing work in this space and discuss implications of risk category violations on various stakeholders. We evaluate how existing open-source technical guardrail solutions cover this taxonomy by assessing them on data collected via red-teaming activities. Our results demonstrate that these guardrails fail to detect most of the content risks we discuss.

VISPUR: Visual Aids for Identifying and Interpreting Spurious Associations in Data-Driven Decisions

Big data and machine learning tools have jointly empowered humans in making data-driven decisions. However, many of them capture empirical associations that might be spurious due to confounding factors and subgroup heterogeneity. The famous Simpson's paradox is such a phenomenon where aggregated and subgroup-level associations contradict with each other, causing cognitive confusions and difficulty in making adequate interpretations and decisions. Existing tools provide little insights for humans to locate, reason about, and prevent pitfalls of spurious association in practice. We propose VISPUR, a visual analytic system that provides a causal analysis framework and a human-centric workflow for tackling spurious associations. These include a CONFOUNDER DASHBOARD, which can automatically identify possible confounding factors, and a SUBGROUP VIEWER, which allows for the visualization and comparison of diverse subgroup patterns that likely or potentially result in a misinterpretation of causality. Additionally, we propose a REASONING STORYBOARD, which uses a flow-based approach to illustrate paradoxical phenomena, as well as an interactive DECISION DIAGNOSIS panel that helps ensure accountable decision-making. Through an expert interview and a controlled user experiment, our qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that the proposed "de-paradox" workflow and the designed visual analytic system are effective in helping human users to identify and understand spurious associations, as well as to make accountable causal decisions.