Deep Learning-based Group Causal Inference in Multivariate Time-series

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world complex systems. Causality methods typically identify the causal structure of a multivariate system by considering the cause-effect relationship of each pair of variables while ignoring the collective effect of a group of variables or interactions involving more than two-time series variables. In this work, we test model invariance by group-level interventions on the trained deep networks to infer causal direction in groups of variables, such as climate and ecosystem, brain networks, etc. Extensive testing with synthetic and real-world time series data shows a significant improvement of our method over other applied group causality methods and provides us insights into real-world time series. The code for our method can be found at:https://github.com/wasimahmadpk/gCause.

CapST: An Enhanced and Lightweight Method for Deepfake Video Classification

The proliferation of deepfake videos, synthetic media produced through advanced Artificial Intelligence techniques has raised significant concerns across various sectors, encompassing realms such as politics, entertainment, and security. In response, this research introduces an innovative and streamlined model designed to classify deepfake videos generated by five distinct encoders adeptly. Our approach not only achieves state of the art performance but also optimizes computational resources. At its core, our solution employs part of a VGG19bn as a backbone to efficiently extract features, a strategy proven effective in image-related tasks. We integrate a Capsule Network coupled with a Spatial Temporal attention mechanism to bolster the model's classification capabilities while conserving resources. This combination captures intricate hierarchies among features, facilitating robust identification of deepfake attributes. Delving into the intricacies of our innovation, we introduce an existing video level fusion technique that artfully capitalizes on temporal attention mechanisms. This mechanism serves to handle concatenated feature vectors, capitalizing on the intrinsic temporal dependencies embedded within deepfake videos. By aggregating insights across frames, our model gains a holistic comprehension of video content, resulting in more precise predictions. Experimental results on an extensive benchmark dataset of deepfake videos called DFDM showcase the efficacy of our proposed method. Notably, our approach achieves up to a 4 percent improvement in accurately categorizing deepfake videos compared to baseline models, all while demanding fewer computational resources.

Causal Discovery using Model Invariance through Knockoff Interventions

Cause-effect analysis is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of a system. We propose to exploit model invariance through interventions on the predictors to infer causality in nonlinear multivariate systems of time series. We model nonlinear interactions in time series using DeepAR and then expose the model to different environments using Knockoffs-based interventions to test model invariance. Knockoff samples are pairwise exchangeable, in-distribution and statistically null variables generated without knowing the response. We test model invariance where we show that the distribution of the response residual does not change significantly upon interventions on non-causal predictors. We evaluate our method on real and synthetically generated time series. Overall our method outperforms other widely used causality methods, i.e, VAR Granger causality, VARLiNGAM and PCMCI+.

Causal Inference in Non-linear Time-series using Deep Networks and Knockoff Counterfactuals

Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we propose to use deep autoregressive networks (DeepAR) in tandem with counterfactual analysis to infer nonlinear causal relations in multivariate time series. We extend the concept of Granger causality using probabilistic forecasting with DeepAR. Since deep networks can neither handle missing input nor out-of-distribution intervention, we propose to use the Knockoffs framework (Barberand Cand`es, 2015) for generating intervention variables and consequently counterfactual probabilistic forecasting. Knockoff samples are independent of their output given the observed variables and exchangeable with their counterpart variables without changing the underlying distribution of the data. We test our method on synthetic as well as real-world time series datasets. Overall our method outperforms the widely used vector autoregressive Granger causality and PCMCI in detecting nonlinear causal dependency in multivariate time series.