Explaining Aviation Safety Incidents Using Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning

Although aviation accidents are rare, safety incidents occur more frequently and require a careful analysis to detect and mitigate risks in a timely manner. Analyzing safety incidents using operational data and producing event-based explanations is invaluable to airline companies as well as to governing organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States. However, this task is challenging because of the complexity involved in mining multi-dimensional heterogeneous time series data, the lack of time-step-wise annotation of events in a flight, and the lack of scalable tools to perform analysis over a large number of events. In this work, we propose a precursor mining algorithm that identifies events in the multidimensional time series that are correlated with the safety incident. Precursors are valuable to systems health and safety monitoring and in explaining and forecasting safety incidents. Current methods suffer from poor scalability to high dimensional time series data and are inefficient in capturing temporal behavior. We propose an approach by combining multiple-instance learning (MIL) and deep recurrent neural networks (DRNN) to take advantage of MIL's ability to learn using weakly supervised data and DRNN's ability to model temporal behavior. We describe the algorithm, the data, the intuition behind taking a MIL approach, and a comparative analysis of the proposed algorithm with baseline models. We also discuss the application to a real-world aviation safety problem using data from a commercial airline company and discuss the model's abilities and shortcomings, with some final remarks about possible deployment directions.

Stochastic Gradient Based Extreme Learning Machines For Online Learning of Advanced Combustion Engines

In this article, a stochastic gradient based online learning algorithm for Extreme Learning Machines (ELM) is developed (SG-ELM). A stability criterion based on Lyapunov approach is used to prove both asymptotic stability of estimation error and stability in the estimated parameters suitable for identification of nonlinear dynamic systems. The developed algorithm not only guarantees stability, but also reduces the computational demand compared to the OS-ELM approach based on recursive least squares. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm on a real-world scenario, an advanced combustion engine identification problem is considered. The algorithm is applied to two case studies: An online regression learning for system identification of a Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) Engine and an online classification learning (with class imbalance) for identifying the dynamic operating envelope of the HCCI Engine. The results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed SG-ELM is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art but adds stability and a reduction in computational effort.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control of A Gasoline HCCI Engine Using Extreme Learning Machines

Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is a futuristic combustion technology that operates with a high fuel efficiency and reduced emissions. HCCI combustion is characterized by complex nonlinear dynamics which necessitates a model based control approach for automotive application. HCCI engine control is a nonlinear, multi-input multi-output problem with state and actuator constraints which makes controller design a challenging task. Typical HCCI controllers make use of a first principles based model which involves a long development time and cost associated with expert labor and calibration. In this paper, an alternative approach based on machine learning is presented using extreme learning machines (ELM) and nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). A recurrent ELM is used to learn the nonlinear dynamics of HCCI engine using experimental data and is shown to accurately predict the engine behavior several steps ahead in time, suitable for predictive control. Using the ELM engine models, an MPC based control algorithm with a simplified quadratic program update is derived for real time implementation. The working and effectiveness of the MPC approach has been analyzed on a nonlinear HCCI engine model for tracking multiple reference quantities along with constraints defined by HCCI states, actuators and operational limits.

Modeling The Stable Operating Envelope For Partially Stable Combustion Engines Using Class Imbalance Learning

Advanced combustion technologies such as homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engines have a narrow stable operating region defined by complex control strategies such as exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and variable valve timing among others. For such systems, it is important to identify the operating envelope or the boundary of stable operation for diagnostics and control purposes. Obtaining a good model of the operating envelope using physics becomes intractable owing to engine transient effects. In this paper, a machine learning based approach is employed to identify the stable operating boundary of HCCI combustion directly from experimental data. Owing to imbalance in class proportions in the data, two approaches are considered. A re-sampling (under-sampling, over-sampling) based approach is used to develop models using existing algorithms while a cost-sensitive approach is used to modify the learning algorithm without modifying the data set. Support vector machines and recently developed extreme learning machines are used for model development and results compared against linear classification methods show that cost-sensitive versions of ELM and SVM algorithms are well suited to model the HCCI operating envelope. The prediction results indicate that the models have the potential to be used for predicting HCCI instability based on sensor measurement history.