Abstract:Air pollution regulation is central to urban public health governance, but estimating its effects is difficult because policies are implemented non-randomly and pollution trajectories are shaped by meteorology, socioeconomic change, temporal trends, and overlapping interventions. This study develops an uncertainty-aware Bayesian deep learning framework to estimate the aggregate effect of air pollution regulations on PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations in London from 2010 to 2020. The framework integrates daily PM$_{2.5}$ observations from Inner London monitoring stations, meteorological covariates, annual socioeconomic indicators, month-of-year and day-of-week indicators, and daily regulation status data for 32 policy measures. A Bayesian LSTM captures temporal dependencies in environmental and socioeconomic covariates, Bayesian embedding layers represent temporal and regulation status inputs, and a regulation status prediction branch supports propensity score-based adjustment for non-random policy implementation. Regulatory effects are estimated by comparing observed PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations with counterfactual predictions under a hypothetical no-regulation scenario, with uncertainty summarized across repeated Bayesian training runs and bootstrap resampling. Results show that London's regulations were associated with an average PM$_{2.5}$ reduction of 1.88 $μ$g/m$^3$, a relative reduction of 12.35%, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.64-2.12 $μ$g/m$^3$. Estimated effects were limited before 2013, became clearer from 2013 to 2017, and were strongest in 2018 and 2019. The findings suggest that sustained and cumulative regulatory interventions contributed to measurable improvements in London's air quality. This study demonstrates how uncertainty-aware causal AI can support environmental accountability, public health protection, and evidence-based governance for environmental decision-making.
Abstract:This study introduces Reverse-Speech-Finder (RSF), a groundbreaking neural network backtracking architecture designed to enhance Alzheimer's Disease (AD) diagnosis through speech analysis. Leveraging the power of pre-trained large language models, RSF identifies and utilizes the most probable AD-specific speech markers, addressing both the scarcity of real AD speech samples and the challenge of limited interpretability in existing models. RSF's unique approach consists of three core innovations: Firstly, it exploits the observation that speech markers most probable of predicting AD, defined as the most probable speech-markers (MPMs), must have the highest probability of activating those neurons (in the neural network) with the highest probability of predicting AD, defined as the most probable neurons (MPNs). Secondly, it utilizes a speech token representation at the input layer, allowing backtracking from MPNs to identify the most probable speech-tokens (MPTs) of AD. Lastly, it develops an innovative backtracking method to track backwards from the MPNs to the input layer, identifying the MPTs and the corresponding MPMs, and ingeniously uncovering novel speech markers for AD detection. Experimental results demonstrate RSF's superiority over traditional methods such as SHAP and Integrated Gradients, achieving a 3.5% improvement in accuracy and a 3.2% boost in F1-score. By generating speech data that encapsulates novel markers, RSF not only mitigates the limitations of real data scarcity but also significantly enhances the robustness and accuracy of AD diagnostic models. These findings underscore RSF's potential as a transformative tool in speech-based AD detection, offering new insights into AD-related linguistic deficits and paving the way for more effective non-invasive early intervention strategies.
Abstract:Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects over 55 million people globally, yet the key genetic contributors remain poorly understood. Leveraging recent advancements in genomic foundation models, we present the innovative Reverse-Gene-Finder technology, a ground-breaking neuron-to-gene-token backtracking approach in a neural network architecture to elucidate the novel causal genetic biomarkers driving AD onset. Reverse-Gene-Finder comprises three key innovations. Firstly, we exploit the observation that genes with the highest probability of causing AD, defined as the most causal genes (MCGs), must have the highest probability of activating those neurons with the highest probability of causing AD, defined as the most causal neurons (MCNs). Secondly, we utilize a gene token representation at the input layer to allow each gene (known or novel to AD) to be represented as a discrete and unique entity in the input space. Lastly, in contrast to the existing neural network architectures, which track neuron activations from the input layer to the output layer in a feed-forward manner, we develop an innovative backtracking method to track backwards from the MCNs to the input layer, identifying the Most Causal Tokens (MCTs) and the corresponding MCGs. Reverse-Gene-Finder is highly interpretable, generalizable, and adaptable, providing a promising avenue for application in other disease scenarios.