Would You Trust an AI Doctor? Building Reliable Medical Predictions with Kernel Dropout Uncertainty

The growing capabilities of AI raise questions about their trustworthiness in healthcare, particularly due to opaque decision-making and limited data availability. This paper proposes a novel approach to address these challenges, introducing a Bayesian Monte Carlo Dropout model with kernel modelling. Our model is designed to enhance reliability on small medical datasets, a crucial barrier to the wider adoption of AI in healthcare. This model leverages existing language models for improved effectiveness and seamlessly integrates with current workflows. We demonstrate significant improvements in reliability, even with limited data, offering a promising step towards building trust in AI-driven medical predictions and unlocking its potential to improve patient care.

BayesJudge: Bayesian Kernel Language Modelling with Confidence Uncertainty in Legal Judgment Prediction

Predicting legal judgments with reliable confidence is paramount for responsible legal AI applications. While transformer-based deep neural networks (DNNs) like BERT have demonstrated promise in legal tasks, accurately assessing their prediction confidence remains crucial. We present a novel Bayesian approach called BayesJudge that harnesses the synergy between deep learning and deep Gaussian Processes to quantify uncertainty through Bayesian kernel Monte Carlo dropout. Our method leverages informative priors and flexible data modelling via kernels, surpassing existing methods in both predictive accuracy and confidence estimation as indicated through brier score. Extensive evaluations of public legal datasets showcase our model's superior performance across diverse tasks. We also introduce an optimal solution to automate the scrutiny of unreliable predictions, resulting in a significant increase in the accuracy of the model's predictions by up to 27\%. By empowering judges and legal professionals with more reliable information, our work paves the way for trustworthy and transparent legal AI applications that facilitate informed decisions grounded in both knowledge and quantified uncertainty.