Supervised Distributional Reduction via Optimal Transport and Dependence Maximization

Learning representations that capture both intrinsic data geometry and target-relevant structure remains a fundamental challenge, particularly in settings where data reduction must balance compression with predictive fidelity. While distributional reduction-encompassing joint clustering and dimensionality reduction-offers a principled way to summarize data, its supervised variants remain relatively under-explored, despite the importance of retaining task-relevant signal for downstream prediction and decision-making. We propose Supervised Distributional Reduction (SDR), an algorithm for learning target-aware representations by combining optimal transport with explicit dependence maximization. SDR builds on the Fused Gromov-Wasserstein (FGW) objective to align the relational structure of the input distribution with a set of representative points, while augmenting it with a direct dependence term that encourages the learned embeddings to capture predictive signal more explicitly. This results in compact representations that reflect both geometric structure and supervision. Beyond representation learning, SDR naturally induces a data-dependent, non-stationary geometry that can be leveraged for settings such as Gaussian Process (GP) modelling. By redefining distances through target-aware distributional alignment, SDR enables the construction of adaptive kernels that respond to local variations in both data geometry and supervision, offering an optimal transport-based perspective on non-stationary kernel design.

Boosting Inference with Guided Reasoning: Stochastic Exploration for Recursive Models

Recent work on recursive architectures has shown that tiny neural networks can be surprisingly powerful on structured reasoning tasks. The trick is to model reasoning trajectories with a latent dynamical system. We argue that the inference-time behaviour of these architectures is best understood as approximate inference over latent reasoning trajectories, with deterministic recursion as the one-particle, zero-noise limit. We make this view operational through guided stochastic exploration: stochastic perturbations of the reasoning dynamics propose neighbouring trajectories, and the model's existing early-stopping head reweights them online. The framework yields three label-free diagnostics: local stability, guide alignment, and cloud-token entropy. These predict, from inference traces alone, whether the procedure will help and which of its outputs to trust. On Sudoku-Extreme it lifts exact-solve accuracy from $85.9\%$ to $98.0\%$ without retraining; on Maze-Hard the diagnostics flag a misaligned guide, as validation performance later confirms. The same machinery thus characterises both when recursive reasoning has room to improve at the trajectory level and when the model's internal guide can recover it.

Context-Aware Generative Models for Prediction of Aircraft Ground Tracks

Trajectory prediction (TP) plays an important role in supporting the decision-making of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs). Traditional TP methods are deterministic and physics-based, with parameters that are calibrated using aircraft surveillance data harvested across the world. These models are, therefore, agnostic to the intentions of the pilots and ATCOs, which can have a significant effect on the observed trajectory, particularly in the lateral plane. This work proposes a generative method for lateral TP, using probabilistic machine learning to model the effect of the epistemic uncertainty arising from the unknown effect of pilot behaviour and ATCO intentions. The models are trained to be specific to a particular sector, allowing local procedures such as coordinated entry and exit points to be modelled. A dataset comprising a week's worth of aircraft surveillance data, passing through a busy sector of the United Kingdom's upper airspace, was used to train and test the models. Specifically, a piecewise linear model was used as a functional, low-dimensional representation of the ground tracks, with its control points determined by a generative model conditioned on partial context. It was found that, of the investigated models, a Bayesian Neural Network using the Laplace approximation was able to generate the most plausible trajectories in order to emulate the flow of traffic through the sector.