Abstract:Instrumental variable (IV) and control function (CF) methods are powerful tools for causal effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounding, yet most existing approaches target only mean effects and/or demand substantial fitting and tuning effort. In this paper, we introduce a simple method, TabCF, for control function regression using tabular foundation models, which enables accurate, fast, identification-transparent, and tuning-light causal estimation of distributional quantities, such as interventional means and quantiles; we also propose a copula-based approximation for multivariate outcomes. TabCF performs favorably against representative methods across a broad range of small- to medium-sized synthetic and real data scenarios. The central message is two-fold: for practitioners, it highlights that TabCF is an effective tool for distributional causal inference; for researchers, it suggests that the proposed approach could be considered a strong baseline for future method development. Code is available at https://github.com/GepingChen/TabCF.