Can synthetic data reproduce real-world findings in epidemiology? A replication study using tree-based generative AI

Generative artificial intelligence for synthetic data generation holds substantial potential to address practical challenges in epidemiology. However, many current methods suffer from limited quality, high computational demands, and complexity for non-experts. Furthermore, common evaluation strategies for synthetic data often fail to directly reflect statistical utility. Against this background, a critical underexplored question is whether synthetic data can reliably reproduce key findings from epidemiological research. We propose the use of adversarial random forests (ARF) as an efficient and convenient method for synthesizing tabular epidemiological data. To evaluate its performance, we replicated statistical analyses from six epidemiological publications and compared original with synthetic results. These publications cover blood pressure, anthropometry, myocardial infarction, accelerometry, loneliness, and diabetes, based on data from the German National Cohort (NAKO Gesundheitsstudie), the Bremen STEMI Registry U45 Study, and the Guelph Family Health Study. Additionally, we assessed the impact of dimensionality and variable complexity on synthesis quality by limiting datasets to variables relevant for individual analyses, including necessary derivations. Across all replicated original studies, results from multiple synthetic data replications consistently aligned with original findings. Even for datasets with relatively low sample size-to-dimensionality ratios, the replication outcomes closely matched the original results across various descriptive and inferential analyses. Reducing dimensionality and pre-deriving variables further enhanced both quality and stability of the results.

SPINEPS -- Automatic Whole Spine Segmentation of T2-weighted MR images using a Two-Phase Approach to Multi-class Semantic and Instance Segmentation

Purpose. To present SPINEPS, an open-source deep learning approach for semantic and instance segmentation of 14 spinal structures (ten vertebra substructures, intervertebral discs, spinal cord, spinal canal, and sacrum) in whole body T2w MRI. Methods. During this HIPPA-compliant, retrospective study, we utilized the public SPIDER dataset (218 subjects, 63% female) and a subset of the German National Cohort (1423 subjects, mean age 53, 49% female) for training and evaluation. We combined CT and T2w segmentations to train models that segment 14 spinal structures in T2w sagittal scans both semantically and instance-wise. Performance evaluation metrics included Dice similarity coefficient, average symmetrical surface distance, panoptic quality, segmentation quality, and recognition quality. Statistical significance was assessed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. An in-house dataset was used to qualitatively evaluate out-of-distribution samples. Results. On the public dataset, our approach outperformed the baseline (instance-wise vertebra dice score 0.929 vs. 0.907, p-value<0.001). Training on auto-generated annotations and evaluating on manually corrected test data from the GNC yielded global dice scores of 0.900 for vertebrae, 0.960 for intervertebral discs, and 0.947 for the spinal canal. Incorporating the SPIDER dataset during training increased these scores to 0.920, 0.967, 0.958, respectively. Conclusions. The proposed segmentation approach offers robust segmentation of 14 spinal structures in T2w sagittal images, including the spinal cord, spinal canal, intervertebral discs, endplate, sacrum, and vertebrae. The approach yields both a semantic and instance mask as output, thus being easy to utilize. This marks the first publicly available algorithm for whole spine segmentation in sagittal T2w MR imaging.