Compact Circulant Layers with Spectral Priors

Critical applications in areas such as medicine, robotics and autonomous systems require compact (i.e., memory efficient), uncertainty-aware neural networks suitable for edge and other resource-constrained deployments. We study compact spectral circulant and block-circulant-with-circulant-blocks (BCCB) layers: FFT-diagonalizable circular convolutions whose weights live directly in the real FFT (RFFT) half (1D) or half-plane (2D). Parameterizing filters in the frequency domain lets us impose simple spectral structure, perform structured variational inference in a low-dimensional weight space, and calculate exact layer spectral norms, enabling inexpensive global Lipschitz bounds and margin-based robustness diagnostics. By placing independent complex Gaussians on the Hermitian support we obtain a discrete instance of the spectral representation of stationary kernels, inducing an exact stationary Gaussian-process prior over filters on the discrete circle/torus. We exploit this to define a practical spectral prior and a Hermitian-aware low-rank-plus-diagonal variational posterior in real coordinates. Empirically, spectral circulant/BCCB layers are effective compact building blocks in both (variational) Bayesian and point estimate regimes: compact Bayesian neural networks on MNIST->Fashion-MNIST, variational heads on frozen CIFAR-10 features, and deterministic ViT projections on CIFAR-10/Tiny ImageNet; spectral layers match strong baselines while using substantially fewer parameters and with tighter Lipschitz certificates.

Unfolding AlphaFold's Bayesian Roots in Probability Kinematics

We present a novel theoretical interpretation of AlphaFold1. The seminal breakthrough of AlphaFold1 in protein structure prediction by deep learning relied on a learned potential energy function, in contrast to the later end-to-end architectures of AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold3. While this potential was originally justified by referring to physical potentials of mean force (PMFs), we reinterpret AlphaFold1's potential as an instance of probability kinematics - also known as Jeffrey conditioning - a principled but underrecognised generalization of conventional Bayesian updating. Probability kinematics accommodates uncertain or soft evidence in the form of updated probabilities over a partition. This perspective reveals AlphaFold1's potential as a form of generalized Bayesian updating, rather than a thermodynamic potential. To confirm our probabilistic framework's scope and precision, we analyze a synthetic 2D model in which an angular random walk prior is updated with evidence on distances via probability kinematics, mirroring AlphaFold1's approach. This theoretical contribution connects AlphaFold1 to a broader class of well-justified Bayesian methods, allowing precise quantification, surpassing merely qualitative heuristics based on PMFs. More broadly, given the achievements of AlphaFold1, probability kinematics holds considerable promise for probabilistic deep learning, as it allows for the formulation of complex models from a few simpler components.

ELBOing Stein: Variational Bayes with Stein Mixture Inference

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) [Liu and Wang, 2016] performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to underestimating uncertainty [Ba et al., 2021], even for moderately-dimensional models such as small Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To address this issue, we generalize SVGD by letting each particle parameterize a component distribution in a mixture model. Our method, Stein Mixture Inference (SMI), optimizes a lower bound to the evidence (ELBO) and introduces user-specified guides parameterized by particles. SMI extends the Nonlinear SVGD framework [Wang and Liu, 2019] to the case of variational Bayes. SMI effectively avoids variance collapse, judging by a previously described test developed for this purpose, and performs well on standard data sets. In addition, SMI requires considerably fewer particles than SVGD to accurately estimate uncertainty for small BNNs. The synergistic combination of NSVGD, ELBO optimization and user-specified guides establishes a promising approach towards variational Bayesian inference in the case of tall and wide data.