The Bayesian Origin of the Probability Weighting Function in Human Representation of Probabilities

Understanding the representation of probability in the human mind has been of great interest to understanding human decision making. Classical paradoxes in decision making suggest that human perception distorts probability magnitudes. Previous accounts postulate a Probability Weighting Function that transforms perceived probabilities; however, its motivation has been debated. Recent work has sought to motivate this function in terms of noisy representations of probabilities in the human mind. Here, we present an account of the Probability Weighting Function grounded in rational inference over optimal decoding from noisy neural encoding of quantities. We show that our model accurately accounts for behavior in a lottery task and a dot counting task. It further accounts for adaptation to a bimodal short-term prior. Taken together, our results provide a unifying account grounding the human representation of probability in rational inference.

Position: Pause Recycling LoRAs and Prioritize Mechanisms to Uncover Limits and Effectiveness

Merging or routing low-rank adapters (LoRAs) has emerged as a popular solution for enhancing large language models, particularly when data access is restricted by regulatory or domain-specific constraints. This position paper argues that the research community should shift its focus from developing new merging or routing algorithms to understanding the conditions under which reusing LoRAs is truly effective. Through theoretical analysis and synthetic two-hop reasoning and math word-problem tasks, we examine whether reusing LoRAs enables genuine compositional generalization or merely reflects shallow pattern matching. Evaluating two data-agnostic methods--parameter averaging and dynamic adapter selection--we found that reusing LoRAs often fails to logically integrate knowledge across disjoint fine-tuning datasets, especially when such knowledge is underrepresented during pretraining. Our empirical results, supported by theoretical insights into LoRA's limited expressiveness, highlight the preconditions and constraints of reusing them for unseen tasks and cast doubt on its feasibility as a truly data-free approach. We advocate for pausing the pursuit of novel methods for recycling LoRAs and emphasize the need for rigorous mechanisms to guide future academic research in adapter-based model merging and practical system designs for practitioners.

Towards Typologically Aware Rescoring to Mitigate Unfaithfulness in Lower-Resource Languages

Multilingual large language models (LLMs) are known to more frequently generate non-faithful output in resource-constrained languages (Guerreiro et al., 2023 - arXiv:2303.16104), potentially because these typologically diverse languages are underrepresented in their training data. To mitigate unfaithfulness in such settings, we propose using computationally light auxiliary models to rescore the outputs of larger architectures. As proof of the feasibility of such an approach, we show that monolingual 4-layer BERT models pretrained from scratch on less than 700 MB of data without fine-tuning are able to identify faithful summaries with a mean accuracy of 88.33% in three genetically unrelated languages that differ in their morphological complexity - Vietnamese, Polish and Georgian. The same hyperparameter combination moreover generalises well to three other tasks, suggesting applications for rescoring beyond improving faithfulness. In order to inform typologically aware model selection, we also investigate how morphological complexity interacts with regularisation, model depth and training objectives, ultimately demonstrating that morphologically complex languages are more likely to benefit from dropout, while across languages downstream performance is enhanced most by shallow architectures as well as training using the standard BERT objectives.