Abstract:To understand complex system dynamics in dairy farming, it is essential to use modeling tools that capture farm heterogeneity, social interactions, and cumulative environmental impacts. This study proposes an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to simulate nitrogen management and the adoption of low-emission fertilizer across 295 Irish dairy farms over a 15-year period. Using empirical data, the model represents farm communication through a social network, capturing peer influence and discussion group dynamics, where adoption probabilities are driven by social contagion, farm-scale characteristics, and policy interventions such as subsidies and carbon taxes. The framework estimates sectoral greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative abatement, and private-social cost trade-offs, using Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to quantify uncertainty. The model shows strong agreement with observed adoption trajectories ($R^2 = 0.979$, RMSE = 0.0274) and is validated against empirical data using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (D = 0.2407, p < 0.001), indicating its ability to reproduce structural patterns in adoption behavior. Adoption dynamics are further characterized using a logistic diffusion model consistent with Rogers' innovation diffusion theory, capturing progression from early adoption to a saturation level of approximately 91%. By framing decarbonization as a socio-technical diffusion process rather than a purely economic optimization problem, this study provides an in silico policy laboratory for evaluating the robustness and diffusion speed of climate mitigation strategies prior to implementation.
Abstract:Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) networks demand reliable anomaly detection under harsh wireless conditions, yet most detectors fail on four fronts: hostile fading, stealthy non-Gaussian faults, discarded spatial structure, or constrained edge hardware. We propose Graph WPT+HOS, a classical label-free detector that fuses three complementary views: the Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) for spatial inconsistency, the Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) for transient time-frequency localization, and Higher-Order Statistics (HOS) for non-Gaussian shape. The fused features are scored by a Mahalanobis distance with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage and converted to alarms by a one-sided CUSUM. The pipeline is asymptotically optimal at the decision stage, requires no labeled anomalies, and runs on ARM-class edge hardware without GPU acceleration. Across six baselines and four domain-shift regimes under Rayleigh fading, Graph WPT+HOS attains the highest ROC-AUC and PR-AUC and reduces CUSUM detection latency.