Benchmarking State Space Models, Transformers, and Recurrent Networks for US Grid Forecasting

Selecting the right deep learning model for power grid forecasting is challenging, as performance heavily depends on the data available to the operator. This paper presents a comprehensive benchmark of five modern neural architectures: two state space models (PowerMamba, S-Mamba), two Transformers (iTransformer, PatchTST), and a traditional LSTM. We evaluate these models on hourly electricity demand across six diverse US power grids for forecast windows between 24 and 168 hours. To ensure a fair comparison, we adapt each model with specialized temporal processing and a modular layer that cleanly integrates weather covariates. Our results reveal that there is no single best model for all situations. When forecasting using only historical load, PatchTST and the state space models provide the highest accuracy. However, when explicit weather data is added to the inputs, the rankings reverse: iTransformer improves its accuracy three times more efficiently than PatchTST. By controlling for model size, we confirm that this advantage stems from the architecture's inherent ability to mix information across different variables. Extending our evaluation to solar generation, wind power, and wholesale prices further demonstrates that model rankings depend on the forecast task: PatchTST excels on highly rhythmic signals like solar, while state space models are better suited for the chaotic fluctuations of wind and price. Ultimately, this benchmark provides grid operators with actionable guidelines for selecting the optimal forecasting architecture based on their specific data environments.

Reliable Grid Forecasting: State Space Models for Safety-Critical Energy Systems

Accurate grid load forecasting is safety-critical: under-predictions risk supply shortfalls, while symmetric error metrics mask this operational asymmetry. We introduce a grid-specific evaluation framework (Asymmetric MAPE, Under-Prediction Rate, and Reserve Margin) that directly measures operational risk rather than statistical accuracy alone. Using this framework, we conduct a systematic evaluation of Mamba-based State Space Models for California grid forecasting on a weather-aligned CA ISO-TAC dataset spanning Nov 2023 to Nov 2025 (84,498 hourly records across 5 transmission areas). Our analysis reveals that standard accuracy metrics are poor proxies for operational safety: models with identical MAPE can require vastly different reserve margins. We demonstrate that forecast errors are weakly but statistically significantly associated with temperature (r = 0.16), motivating weather-aware modeling rather than loss function modification alone. The S-Mamba model achieves the lowest 99.5th-percentile reserve margin (14.12 percent) compared to 16.66 percent for iTransformer, demonstrating superior forecast reliability under a 99.5th-percentile tail-risk reserve proxy.