A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). This investigation underscores the importance of using a model architecture that supports the communication of prediction uncertainty and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

Distance Preserving Machine Learning for Uncertainty Aware Accelerator Capacitance Predictions

Providing accurate uncertainty estimations is essential for producing reliable machine learning models, especially in safety-critical applications such as accelerator systems. Gaussian process models are generally regarded as the gold standard method for this task, but they can struggle with large, high-dimensional datasets. Combining deep neural networks with Gaussian process approximation techniques have shown promising results, but dimensionality reduction through standard deep neural network layers is not guaranteed to maintain the distance information necessary for Gaussian process models. We build on previous work by comparing the use of the singular value decomposition against a spectral-normalized dense layer as a feature extractor for a deep neural Gaussian process approximation model and apply it to a capacitance prediction problem for the High Voltage Converter Modulators in the Oak Ridge Spallation Neutron Source. Our model shows improved distance preservation and predicts in-distribution capacitance values with less than 1% error.

Multi-module based CVAE to predict HVCM faults in the SNS accelerator

We present a multi-module framework based on Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to detect anomalies in the power signals coming from multiple High Voltage Converter Modulators (HVCMs). We condition the model with the specific modulator type to capture different representations of the normal waveforms and to improve the sensitivity of the model to identify a specific type of fault when we have limited samples for a given module type. We studied several neural network (NN) architectures for our CVAE model and evaluated the model performance by looking at their loss landscape for stability and generalization. Our results for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) experimental data show that the trained model generalizes well to detecting multiple fault types for several HVCM module types. The results of this study can be used to improve the HVCM reliability and overall SNS uptime