A model learning framework for inferring the dynamics of transmission rate depending on exogenous variables for epidemic forecasts

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by incorporating the influence of exogenous variables (such as environmental conditions and strain-specific characteristics). We propose an hybrid model that blends a data-driven layer with a physics-based one. The data-driven layer is based on a neural ordinary differential equation that learns the dynamics of the transmission rate, conditioned on the meteorological data and wave-specific latent parameters. The physics-based layer, instead, consists of a standard SEIR compartmental model, wherein the transmission rate represents an input. The learning strategy follows an end-to-end approach: the loss function quantifies the mismatch between the actual numbers of infections and its numerical prediction obtained from the SEIR model incorporating as an input the transmission rate predicted by the neural ordinary differential equation. We validate this original approach using both a synthetic test case and a realistic test case based on meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and influenza data from Italy between 2010 and 2020. In both scenarios, we achieve low generalization error on the test set and observe strong alignment between the reconstructed model and established findings on the influence of meteorological factors on epidemic spread. Finally, we implement a data assimilation strategy to adapt the neural equation to the specific characteristics of an epidemic wave under investigation, and we conduct sensitivity tests on the network hyperparameters.

Physics-informed Neural Network Estimation of Material Properties in Soft Tissue Nonlinear Biomechanical Models

The development of biophysical models for clinical applications is rapidly advancing in the research community, thanks to their predictive nature and their ability to assist the interpretation of clinical data. However, high-resolution and accurate multi-physics computational models are computationally expensive and their personalisation involves fine calibration of a large number of parameters, which may be space-dependent, challenging their clinical translation. In this work, we propose a new approach which relies on the combination of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) with three-dimensional soft tissue nonlinear biomechanical models, capable of reconstructing displacement fields and estimating heterogeneous patient-specific biophysical properties. The proposed learning algorithm encodes information from a limited amount of displacement and, in some cases, strain data, that can be routinely acquired in the clinical setting, and combines it with the physics of the problem, represented by a mathematical model based on partial differential equations, to regularise the problem and improve its convergence properties. Several benchmarks are presented to show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method and its great potential to enable the robust and effective identification of patient-specific, heterogeneous physical properties, s.a. tissue stiffness properties. In particular, we demonstrate the capability of the PINN to detect the presence, location and severity of scar tissue, which is beneficial to develop personalised simulation models for disease diagnosis, especially for cardiac applications.

Latent Dynamics Networks (LDNets): learning the intrinsic dynamics of spatio-temporal processes

Predicting the evolution of systems that exhibit spatio-temporal dynamics in response to external stimuli is a key enabling technology fostering scientific innovation. Traditional equations-based approaches leverage first principles to yield predictions through the numerical approximation of high-dimensional systems of differential equations, thus calling for large-scale parallel computing platforms and requiring large computational costs. Data-driven approaches, instead, enable the description of systems evolution in low-dimensional latent spaces, by leveraging dimensionality reduction and deep learning algorithms. We propose a novel architecture, named Latent Dynamics Network (LDNet), which is able to discover low-dimensional intrinsic dynamics of possibly non-Markovian dynamical systems, thus predicting the time evolution of space-dependent fields in response to external inputs. Unlike popular approaches, in which the latent representation of the solution manifold is learned by means of auto-encoders that map a high-dimensional discretization of the system state into itself, LDNets automatically discover a low-dimensional manifold while learning the latent dynamics, without ever operating in the high-dimensional space. Furthermore, LDNets are meshless algorithms that do not reconstruct the output on a predetermined grid of points, but rather at any point of the domain, thus enabling weight-sharing across query-points. These features make LDNets lightweight and easy-to-train, with excellent accuracy and generalization properties, even in time-extrapolation regimes. We validate our method on several test cases and we show that, for a challenging highly-nonlinear problem, LDNets outperform state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy (normalized error 5 times smaller), by employing a dramatically smaller number of trainable parameters (more than 10 times fewer).