Probabilistic Outlier Detection and Generation

A new method for outlier detection and generation is introduced by lifting data into the space of probability distributions which are not analytically expressible, but from which samples can be drawn using a neural generator. Given a mixture of unknown latent inlier and outlier distributions, a Wasserstein double autoencoder is used to both detect and generate inliers and outliers. The proposed method, named WALDO (Wasserstein Autoencoder for Learning the Distribution of Outliers), is evaluated on classical data sets including MNIST, CIFAR10 and KDD99 for detection accuracy and robustness. We give an example of outlier detection on a real retail sales data set and an example of outlier generation for simulating intrusion attacks. However we foresee many application scenarios where WALDO can be used. To the best of our knowledge this is the first work that studies both outlier detection and generation together.

AI-CARGO: A Data-Driven Air-Cargo Revenue Management System

We propose AI-CARGO, a revenue management system for air-cargo that combines machine learning prediction with decision-making using mathematical optimization methods. AI-CARGO addresses a problem that is unique to the air-cargo business, namely the wide discrepancy between the quantity (weight or volume) that a shipper will book and the actual received amount at departure time by the airline. The discrepancy results in sub-optimal and inefficient behavior by both the shipper and the airline resulting in the overall loss of potential revenue for the airline. AI-CARGO also includes a data cleaning component to deal with the heterogeneous forms in which booking data is transmitted to the airline cargo system. AI-CARGO is deployed in the production environment of a large commercial airline company. We have validated the benefits of AI-CARGO using real and synthetic datasets. Especially, we have carried out simulations using dynamic programming techniques to elicit the impact on offloading costs and revenue generation of our proposed system. Our results suggest that combining prediction within a decision-making framework can help dramatically to reduce offloading costs and optimize revenue generation.