Smart Inverter Grid Probing for Learning Loads: Part II - Probing Injection Design

This two-part work puts forth the idea of engaging power electronics to probe an electric grid to infer non-metered loads. Probing can be accomplished by commanding inverters to perturb their power injections and record the induced voltage response. Once a probing setup is deemed topologically observable by the tests of Part I, Part II provides a methodology for designing probing injections abiding by inverter and network constraints to improve load estimates. The task is challenging since system estimates depend on both probing injections and unknown loads in an implicit nonlinear fashion. The methodology first constructs a library of candidate probing vectors by sampling over the feasible set of inverter injections. Leveraging a linearized grid model and a robust approach, the candidate probing vectors violating voltage constraints for any anticipated load value are subsequently rejected. Among the qualified candidates, the design finally identifies the probing vectors yielding the most diverse system states. The probing task under noisy phasor and non-phasor data is tackled using a semidefinite-program (SDP) relaxation. Numerical tests using synthetic and real-world data on a benchmark feeder validate the conditions of Part I; the SDP-based solver; the importance of probing design; and the effects of probing duration and noise.

Smart Inverter Grid Probing for Learning Loads: Part I - Identifiability Analysis

Distribution grids currently lack comprehensive real-time metering. Nevertheless, grid operators require precise knowledge of loads and renewable generation to accomplish any feeder optimization task. At the same time, new grid technologies, such as solar photovoltaics and energy storage units are interfaced via inverters with advanced sensing and actuation capabilities. In this context, this two-part work puts forth the idea of engaging power electronics to probe an electric grid and record its voltage response at actuated and metered buses, to infer non-metered loads. Probing can be accomplished by commanding inverters to momentarily perturb their power injections. Multiple probing actions can be induced within a few tens of seconds. In Part I, load inference via grid probing is formulated as an implicit nonlinear system identification task, which is shown to be topologically observable under certain conditions. The conditions can be readily checked upon solving a max-flow problem on a bipartite graph derived from the feeder topology and the placement of actuated and non-metered buses. The analysis holds for single- and multi-phase grids, radial or meshed, and applies to phasor or magnitude-only voltage data. The topological observability of distribution systems using smart meter or phasor data is cast and analyzed a special case.

Enhancing Observability in Distribution Grids using Smart Meter Data

Due to limited metering infrastructure, distribution grids are currently challenged by observability issues. On the other hand, smart meter data, including local voltage magnitudes and power injections, are communicated to the utility operator from grid buses with renewable generation and demand-response programs. This work employs grid data from metered buses towards inferring the underlying grid state. To this end, a coupled formulation of the power flow problem (CPF) is put forth. Exploiting the high variability of injections at metered buses, the controllability of solar inverters, and the relative time-invariance of conventional loads, the idea is to solve the non-linear power flow equations jointly over consecutive time instants. An intuitive and easily verifiable rule pertaining to the locations of metered and non-metered buses on the physical grid is shown to be a necessary and sufficient criterion for local observability in radial networks. To account for noisy smart meter readings, a coupled power system state estimation (CPSSE) problem is further developed. Both CPF and CPSSE tasks are tackled via augmented semi-definite program relaxations. The observability criterion along with the CPF and CPSSE solvers are numerically corroborated using synthetic and actual solar generation and load data on the IEEE 34-bus benchmark feeder.

Time-series Scenario Forecasting

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some information. We would ideally have a way to query the posterior probability of the entire time-series given the predictive variables, or at a minimum, be able to draw samples from this distribution. We use a Bayesian dictionary learning algorithm to statistically generate an ensemble of forecasts. We show that the algorithm performs as well as a physics-based ensemble method for temperature forecasts for Houston. We conclude that the method shows promise for scenario forecasting where physics-based methods are absent.

Surrogate Learning - An Approach for Semi-Supervised Classification

We consider the task of learning a classifier from the feature space $\mathcal{X}$ to the set of classes $\mathcal{Y} = \{0, 1\}$, when the features can be partitioned into class-conditionally independent feature sets $\mathcal{X}_1$ and $\mathcal{X}_2$. We show the surprising fact that the class-conditional independence can be used to represent the original learning task in terms of 1) learning a classifier from $\mathcal{X}_2$ to $\mathcal{X}_1$ and 2) learning the class-conditional distribution of the feature set $\mathcal{X}_1$. This fact can be exploited for semi-supervised learning because the former task can be accomplished purely from unlabeled samples. We present experimental evaluation of the idea in two real world applications.