AMEND: A Mixture of Experts Framework for Long-tailed Trajectory Prediction

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

DICE: Diverse Diffusion Model with Scoring for Trajectory Prediction

Road user trajectory prediction in dynamic environments is a challenging but crucial task for various applications, such as autonomous driving. One of the main challenges in this domain is the multimodal nature of future trajectories stemming from the unknown yet diverse intentions of the agents. Diffusion models have shown to be very effective in capturing such stochasticity in prediction tasks. However, these models involve many computationally expensive denoising steps and sampling operations that make them a less desirable option for real-time safety-critical applications. To this end, we present a novel framework that leverages diffusion models for predicting future trajectories in a computationally efficient manner. To minimize the computational bottlenecks in iterative sampling, we employ an efficient sampling mechanism that allows us to maximize the number of sampled trajectories for improved accuracy while maintaining inference time in real time. Moreover, we propose a scoring mechanism to select the most plausible trajectories by assigning relative ranks. We show the effectiveness of our approach by conducting empirical evaluations on common pedestrian (UCY/ETH) and autonomous driving (nuScenes) benchmark datasets on which our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on several subsets and metrics.

DESTINE: Dynamic Goal Queries with Temporal Transductive Alignment for Trajectory Prediction

Predicting temporally consistent road users' trajectories in a multi-agent setting is a challenging task due to unknown characteristics of agents and their varying intentions. Besides using semantic map information and modeling interactions, it is important to build an effective mechanism capable of reasoning about behaviors at different levels of granularity. To this end, we propose Dynamic goal quErieS with temporal Transductive alIgNmEnt (DESTINE) method. Unlike past arts, our approach 1) dynamically predicts agents' goals irrespective of particular road structures, such as lanes, allowing the method to produce a more accurate estimation of destinations; 2) achieves map compliant predictions by generating future trajectories in a coarse-to-fine fashion, where the coarser predictions at a lower frame rate serve as intermediate goals; and 3) uses an attention module designed to temporally align predicted trajectories via masked attention. Using the common Argoverse benchmark dataset, we show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on various metrics, and further investigate the contributions of proposed modules via comprehensive ablation studies.