Heads, Not Backbones: Output Heads Dominate Architectures on Fat-Tailed Returns

In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored walk-forward validation, the three heads form a strict gradient: switching from point to Gaussian improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent; switching from Gaussian to mixture adds a further about 2.4 percent. Switching between backbones, in contrast, changes CRPS by less than 1.5 percent on the point-head row and on the backbone-mean axis; density-head backbone spread is larger (up to 5.1 percent on the h=1 Gaussian row, driven by N-BEATS) but the head gradient (3.7 percentage points) still dominates. The Model Confidence Set on squared errors does not exclude any of the 12 variants at the 5 percent level: the head separates them only on distributional metrics (CRPS, pinball, coverage), not on squared error. The mixture head incremental value over a single Gaussian is largest in the highest-volatility regimes (13.9 percent in 1970s stagflation at h=12), confirming the mixture captures tail risk beyond what a unimodal Gaussian can express. The picture is horizon-dependent: the head dominates at short horizons, but at long horizons (h >= 6) the backbone re-takes the lead - an h-split we document against classical baselines (section 5.1). We conclude that on fat-tailed returns at short horizons, the head dominates the backbone, and the mixture distribution adds genuine value over a single Gaussian during crisis periods when risk-management decisions actually matter.

CANNs: A Toolkit for Research on Continuous Attractor Neural Networks

Continuous attractor neural networks (CANNs) are the canonical computational framework for how the brain encodes continuous variables such as spatial position, head direction, and movement direction, and explain the activity of hippocampal place cells, entorhinal grid cells, and head-direction cells. CANN research, however, is fragmented: most results rest on lab-specific implementations, general-purpose simulators lack CANN-specific abstractions, and the path from spike trains to attractor geometry in real recordings lacks a standardized toolkit. Here, we present a comprehensive open-source toolkit that unifies the full CANN research workflow. It combines three tightly integrated components: 1) canns, a Python library on BrainPy/JAX that provides standardized 1D/2D CANNs, spike-frequency-adaptation variants, grid cell networks, hierarchical path-integration models, and brain-inspired attractor architectures, together with curated datasets, task generators, an analyzer module and trainer modules for biologically plausible plasticity; 2) canns-lib, a Rust acceleration backend delivering hundreds-of-times speedups for spatial-navigation workloads and modest gains for Ripser-based persistent homology; 3) ASA (Attractor Structure Analyzer), a PySide6 pipeline applying persistent homology and cohomology to experimental neural recordings to detect ring-like and toroidal attractor signatures in real data. The toolkit ships with full-detail reproducible pipelines that recover recent CANN results including SFA-driven anticipative tracking, theta sweeps in head-direction/place/grid systems, and hierarchical path integration.

A Differentiable Approach to Multi-scale Brain Modeling

We present a multi-scale differentiable brain modeling workflow utilizing BrainPy, a unique differentiable brain simulator that combines accurate brain simulation with powerful gradient-based optimization. We leverage this capability of BrainPy across different brain scales. At the single-neuron level, we implement differentiable neuron models and employ gradient methods to optimize their fit to electrophysiological data. On the network level, we incorporate connectomic data to construct biologically constrained network models. Finally, to replicate animal behavior, we train these models on cognitive tasks using gradient-based learning rules. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance and speed in fitting generalized leaky integrate-and-fire and Hodgkin-Huxley single neuron models. Additionally, training a biologically-informed network of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons on working memory tasks successfully replicates observed neural activity and synaptic weight distributions. Overall, our differentiable multi-scale simulation approach offers a promising tool to bridge neuroscience data across electrophysiological, anatomical, and behavioral scales.

A differentiable brain simulator bridging brain simulation and brain-inspired computing

Brain simulation builds dynamical models to mimic the structure and functions of the brain, while brain-inspired computing (BIC) develops intelligent systems by learning from the structure and functions of the brain. The two fields are intertwined and should share a common programming framework to facilitate each other's development. However, none of the existing software in the fields can achieve this goal, because traditional brain simulators lack differentiability for training, while existing deep learning (DL) frameworks fail to capture the biophysical realism and complexity of brain dynamics. In this paper, we introduce BrainPy, a differentiable brain simulator developed using JAX and XLA, with the aim of bridging the gap between brain simulation and BIC. BrainPy expands upon the functionalities of JAX, a powerful AI framework, by introducing complete capabilities for flexible, efficient, and scalable brain simulation. It offers a range of sparse and event-driven operators for efficient and scalable brain simulation, an abstraction for managing the intricacies of synaptic computations, a modular and flexible interface for constructing multi-scale brain models, and an object-oriented just-in-time compilation approach to handle the memory-intensive nature of brain dynamics. We showcase the efficiency and scalability of BrainPy on benchmark tasks, highlight its differentiable simulation for biologically plausible spiking models, and discuss its potential to support research at the intersection of brain simulation and BIC.