On the Limits of Machine-Learned Ranking for Modern Microarchitectural Policies

Machine-learning predictors estimate processor performance far faster than cycle-level simulation. For design-space exploration, however, the valuable test is not merely reproducing the usual hardware ordering, but identifying how different hardware configurations rank on individual program phases. We evaluate four ML-predictors in two design regimes: \emph{Structural Parameters} (SP), varying hardware resources such as issue width, ROB size, and cache capacity; and \emph{Behavioral Policies} (BP), varying prefetching and replacement algorithms. In the SP regime, aggregate ranking is strong, yet counter-intuitive windows(CIW)---where the configuration expected to be slower is faster---constitute $22.4\%$ of non-tied windows across five pairs with a clear architectural prior. CIW match across these pairs is only $23.3$--$39.9\%$; every point estimate is below the $50\%$ random strict-ordering reference. The BP regime presents a different failure: ground-truth ties cover $37.8\%$ of pair-windows, most strict pairs have margins of only a few cycles, and no model family reliably beats a feature-free majority baseline. NeuroScalar and SimNet fall below that baseline, Concorde is statistically tied with it, and the best selected OneDSE head improves by only $2.1$ percentage points. Accuracy rises mainly at large margins. We further show that this failure is not a matter of model capacity: an information-theoretic analysis reveals that when ranking outcomes depend on hidden microarchitectural state absent from the instruction stream, no trace-based predictor can exceed the Bayes accuracy determined by observable inputs alone. Thus high cycle or aggregate ranking accuracy can reflect mastery of easy, high-margin cases while missing the local reversals that carry the most architectural insight and for which cycle-level simulation remains indispensable.

NeuroScalar: A Deep Learning Framework for Fast, Accurate, and In-the-Wild Cycle-Level Performance Prediction

The evaluation of new microprocessor designs is constrained by slow, cycle-accurate simulators that rely on unrepresentative benchmark traces. This paper introduces a novel deep learning framework for high-fidelity, ``in-the-wild'' simulation on production hardware. Our core contribution is a DL model trained on microarchitecture-independent features to predict cycle-level performance for hypothetical processor designs. This unique approach allows the model to be deployed on existing silicon to evaluate future hardware. We propose a complete system featuring a lightweight hardware trace collector and a principled sampling strategy to minimize user impact. This system achieves a simulation speed of 5 MIPS on a commodity GPU, imposing a mere 0.1% performance overhead. Furthermore, our co-designed Neutrino on-chip accelerator improves performance by 85x over the GPU. We demonstrate that this framework enables accurate performance analysis and large-scale hardware A/B testing on a massive scale using real-world applications.