From Drift to Coherence: Stabilizing Beliefs in LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are often hypothesized to perform implicit Bayesian inference, yet a key coherence condition, the martingale property of predictive beliefs, has been shown to fail in controlled synthetic in-context learning settings. We revisit this question in a more typical usage regime: generic multiple-choice question answering. Exploiting the discrete answer space, we compute exact predictive distributions and study belief dynamics induced by autoregressive answer resampling. We introduce prompted predictive resampling (PPR), where an LLM generates a sequence of answers to the same question. Empirically, PPR reveals early-stage belief drift, indicating martingale violations. However, after sufficient resampling steps, the belief process self-stabilizes and converges to a coherent predictive distribution. Based on this observation, we further propose (i) a seed-answer prompting strategy to accelerate stabilization, and (ii) a self-consistency loss that amortizes early-stage drift into the model via fine-tuning. Experiments on multiple-choice QA benchmarks show that our methods substantially reduce belief drift and improve predictive coherence without sacrificing accuracy.

Parallel Test-Time Scaling with Multi-Sequence Verifiers

Parallel test-time scaling, which generates multiple candidate solutions for a single problem, is a powerful technique for improving large language model performance. However, it is hindered by two key bottlenecks: accurately selecting the correct solution from the candidate pool, and the high inference latency from generating many full solutions. We argue that both challenges are fundamentally linked to verifier calibration. A well-calibrated verifier not only improves answer selection, but also enables early-stopping strategies to reduce latency. However, existing verifiers are limited as they score each candidate in isolation, overlooking rich contextual information across the set of candidates. To address this, we introduce the Multi-Sequence Verifier (MSV), the first verifier designed to jointly process all candidate solutions and model their interactions. MSV achieves improved calibration, which directly enhances best-of-N selection performance. We further introduce a streaming MSV variant that empowers a novel early-stopping framework. Our novel framework fully leverages parallel decoding, which contrasts with the existing multi-sequence early exit works that decode sequences one by one and thus incur significant latency. In this novel setting, MSV can achieve the same target accuracy with around half the latency that would be required with its counterpart that scores each solution in isolation.

Variational Bayesian Pseudo-Coreset

The success of deep learning requires large datasets and extensive training, which can create significant computational challenges. To address these challenges, pseudo-coresets, small learnable datasets that mimic the entire data, have been proposed. Bayesian Neural Networks, which offer predictive uncertainty and probabilistic interpretation for deep neural networks, also face issues with large-scale datasets due to their high-dimensional parameter space. Prior works on Bayesian Pseudo-Coresets (BPC) attempt to reduce the computational load for computing weight posterior distribution by a small number of pseudo-coresets but suffer from memory inefficiency during BPC training and sub-optimal results. To overcome these limitations, we propose Variational Bayesian Pseudo-Coreset (VBPC), a novel approach that utilizes variational inference to efficiently approximate the posterior distribution, reducing memory usage and computational costs while improving performance across benchmark datasets.