Police Text Analysis: Topic Modeling and Spatial Relative Density Estimation

We analyze a large corpus of police incident narrative documents in understanding the spatial distribution of the topics. The motivation for doing this is that police narratives in each incident report contains very fine-grained information that is richer than the category that is manually assigned by the police. Our approach is to split the corpus into topics using two different unsupervised machine learning algorithms - Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Non-negative Matrix Factorization. We validate the performance of each learned topic model using model coherence. Then, using a k-nearest neighbors density ratio estimation (kNN-DRE) approach that we propose, we estimate the spatial density ratio per topic and use this for data discovery and analysis of each topic, allowing for insights into the described incidents at scale. We provide a qualitative assessment of each topic and highlight some key benefits for using our kNN-DRE model for estimating spatial trends.