Interpreting Learning Under Competing Models: Joint and Stepwise Approaches for Dynamic Cognitive Diagnosis

Digital learning environments record learners' responses to individual items, making it possible to study the development of specific skills rather than overall scores. Drawing conclusions about learning from these data requires a model that links responses to latent skills and tracks how mastery changes over time. When the skills measured by each item are unknown, the analyst must decide whether to estimate this structure, the Q-matrix, jointly with the learning process, or to establish it first and study learning afterwards. We show that this decision can change substantive conclusions about how learners develop. Using dynamic cognitive diagnostic models, we analyse data from two reading games measuring vocabulary and comprehension from Grade 2 to Grade 3, with item-text embeddings providing prior information for the unknown Q-matrix. A joint analysis and a bias-corrected stepwise analysis agree that most learners move toward mastering both skills, but disagree about how many remain only partially proficient at Grade 3, changing how reading progress would be reported. A simulation study identifies when the two analyses diverge and shows that joint analysis is more reliable when the item-skill structure is uncertain and the item pool changes between grades. We provide R code for both analyses.

Uncertainty-Aware Regression for Socio-Economic Estimation via Multi-View Remote Sensing

Remote sensing imagery offers rich spectral data across extensive areas for Earth observation. Many attempts have been made to leverage these data with transfer learning to develop scalable alternatives for estimating socio-economic conditions, reducing reliance on expensive survey-collected data. However, much of this research has primarily focused on daytime satellite imagery due to the limitation that most pre-trained models are trained on 3-band RGB images. Consequently, modeling techniques for spectral bands beyond the visible spectrum have not been thoroughly investigated. Additionally, quantifying uncertainty in remote sensing regression has been less explored, yet it is essential for more informed targeting and iterative collection of ground truth survey data. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that leverages generic foundational vision models to process remote sensing imagery using combinations of three spectral bands to exploit multi-spectral data. We also employ methods such as heteroscedastic regression and Bayesian modeling to generate uncertainty estimates for the predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models that use RGB or multi-spectral models with unstructured band usage. Moreover, our framework helps identify uncertain predictions, guiding future ground truth data acquisition.