OpComm: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Adaptive Buffer Control in Warehouse Volume Forecasting

Accurate forecasting of package volumes at delivery stations is critical for last-mile logistics, where errors lead to inefficient resource allocation, higher costs, and delivery delays. We propose OpComm, a forecasting and decision-support framework that combines supervised learning with reinforcement learning-based buffer control and a generative AI-driven communication module. A LightGBM regression model generates station-level demand forecasts, which serve as context for a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent that selects buffer levels from a discrete action set. The reward function penalizes under-buffering more heavily than over-buffering, reflecting real-world trade-offs between unmet demand risks and resource inefficiency. Station outcomes are fed back through a Monte Carlo update mechanism, enabling continual policy adaptation. To enhance interpretability, a generative AI layer produces executive-level summaries and scenario analyses grounded in SHAP-based feature attributions. Across 400+ stations, OpComm reduced Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE) by 21.65% compared to manual forecasts, while lowering under-buffering incidents and improving transparency for decision-makers. This work shows how contextual reinforcement learning, coupled with predictive modeling, can address operational forecasting challenges and bridge statistical rigor with practical decision-making in high-stakes logistics environments.

Node-Level Financial Optimization in Demand Forecasting Through Dynamic Cost Asymmetry and Feedback Mechanism

This work introduces a methodology to adjust forecasts based on node-specific cost function asymmetry. The proposed model generates savings by dynamically incorporating the cost asymmetry into the forecasting error probability distribution to favor the least expensive scenario. Savings are calculated and a self-regulation mechanism modulates the adjustments magnitude based on the observed savings, enabling the model to adapt to station-specific conditions and unmodeled factors such as calibration errors or shifting macroeconomic dynamics. Finally, empirical results demonstrate the model's ability to achieve \$5.1M annual savings.

Scaling Causal Mediation for Complex Systems: A Framework for Root Cause Analysis

Modern operational systems ranging from logistics and cloud infrastructure to industrial IoT, are governed by complex, interdependent processes. Understanding how interventions propagate through such systems requires causal inference methods that go beyond direct effects to quantify mediated pathways. Traditional mediation analysis, while effective in simple settings, fails to scale to the high-dimensional directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encountered in practice, particularly when multiple treatments and mediators interact. In this paper, we propose a scalable mediation analysis framework tailored for large causal DAGs involving multiple treatments and mediators. Our approach systematically decomposes total effects into interpretable direct and indirect components. We demonstrate its practical utility through applied case studies in fulfillment center logistics, where complex dependencies and non-controllable factors often obscure root causes.