Observation-specific explanations through scattered data approximation

This work introduces the definition of observation-specific explanations to assign a score to each data point proportional to its importance in the definition of the prediction process. Such explanations involve the identification of the most influential observations for the black-box model of interest. The proposed method involves estimating these explanations by constructing a surrogate model through scattered data approximation utilizing the orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm. The proposed approach is validated on both simulated and real-world datasets.

Fast Empirical Scenarios

We seek to extract a small number of representative scenarios from large and high-dimensional panel data that are consistent with sample moments. Among two novel algorithms, the first identifies scenarios that have not been observed before, and comes with a scenario-based representation of covariance matrices. The second proposal picks important data points from states of the world that have already realized, and are consistent with higher-order sample moment information. Both algorithms are efficient to compute, and lend themselves to consistent scenario-based modeling and high-dimensional numerical integration. Extensive numerical benchmarking studies and an application in portfolio optimization favor the proposed algorithms.