Early Prediction of Future Behavioral Strategy from Process Traces

Adaptive systems often need to make task-specific decisions about people from limited evidence: a tutor may need to anticipate how a learner will approach a new problem, a game may need to adapt when a player enters a new level, and a human-AI system may need to infer whether a partner will persist with a plan or switch goals. These decisions depend on person-level tendencies that shape how people solve related tasks, but such tendencies are difficult to infer from standard behavioral evidence. One approach is to use aggregate outcome summaries, such as scores, completion rates, or productivity; these summaries are compact and available across tasks, but can collapse distinct behavioral processes into similar outcomes. Another approach is to use process-level traces, which record how behavior unfolds; however, process modeling within one task can entangle stable person-level tendencies with task-specific layout and affordances. In this work, we study early cross-task behavioral inference: whether partial source-task process traces can reveal transferable person-level structure that predicts strategy in a held-out target task. We introduce a Process-Level Latent Variable Model (PLVM), which encodes task-specific traces and fuses them into a shared person-level latent representation for cross-task prediction. In PowerWash Simulator, a naturalistic telemetry dataset of human gameplay, PLVM uses partial traces from two cleaning tasks to predict locally persistent Zone Planner behavior versus frequent Zone Hopper behavior in the held-out Fire Station level. Controlled simulations with known latent types show that cross-task fusion helps when source tasks reveal complementary dimensions of a shared latent process. These results suggest that process-level cross-task modeling can support early prediction of target-task strategy when observing sufficient target-task behavior is impractical.

On the Utility of Accounting for Human Beliefs about AI Behavior in Human-AI Collaboration

To enable effective human-AI collaboration, merely optimizing AI performance while ignoring humans is not sufficient. Recent research has demonstrated that designing AI agents to account for human behavior leads to improved performance in human-AI collaboration. However, a limitation of most existing approaches is their assumption that human behavior is static, irrespective of AI behavior. In reality, humans may adjust their action plans based on their observations of AI behavior. In this paper, we address this limitation by enabling a collaborative AI agent to consider the beliefs of its human partner, i.e., what the human partner thinks the AI agent is doing, and design its action plan to facilitate easier collaboration with its human partner. Specifically, we developed a model of human beliefs that accounts for how humans reason about the behavior of their AI partners. Based on this belief model, we then developed an AI agent that considers both human behavior and human beliefs in devising its strategy for working with humans. Through extensive real-world human-subject experiments, we demonstrated that our belief model more accurately predicts humans' beliefs about AI behavior. Moreover, we showed that our design of AI agents that accounts for human beliefs enhances performance in human-AI collaboration.

Data-Driven Goal Recognition Design for General Behavioral Agents

Goal recognition design aims to make limited modifications to decision-making environments with the goal of making it easier to infer the goals of agents acting within those environments. Although various research efforts have been made in goal recognition design, existing approaches are computationally demanding and often assume that agents are (near-)optimal in their decision-making. To address these limitations, we introduce a data-driven approach to goal recognition design that can account for agents with general behavioral models. Following existing literature, we use worst-case distinctiveness ($\textit{wcd}$) as a measure of the difficulty in inferring the goal of an agent in a decision-making environment. Our approach begins by training a machine learning model to predict the $\textit{wcd}$ for a given environment and the agent behavior model. We then propose a gradient-based optimization framework that accommodates various constraints to optimize decision-making environments for enhanced goal recognition. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods in reducing $\textit{wcd}$ and enhancing runtime efficiency in conventional setups, and it also adapts to scenarios not previously covered in the literature, such as those involving flexible budget constraints, more complex environments, and suboptimal agent behavior. Moreover, we have conducted human-subject experiments which confirm that our method can create environments that facilitate efficient goal recognition from real-world human decision-makers.

Distributional Latent Variable Models with an Application in Active Cognitive Testing

Cognitive modeling commonly relies on asking participants to complete a battery of varied tests in order to estimate attention, working memory, and other latent variables. In many cases, these tests result in highly variable observation models. A near-ubiquitous approach is to repeat many observations for each test, resulting in a distribution over the outcomes from each test given to each subject. In this paper, we explore the usage of latent variable modeling to enable learning across many correlated variables simultaneously. We extend latent variable models (LVMs) to the setting where observed data for each subject are a series of observations from many different distributions, rather than simple vectors to be reconstructed. By embedding test battery results for individuals in a latent space that is trained jointly across a population, we are able to leverage correlations both between tests for a single participant and between multiple participants. We then propose an active learning framework that leverages this model to conduct more efficient cognitive test batteries. We validate our approach by demonstrating with real-time data acquisition that it performs comparably to conventional methods in making item-level predictions with fewer test items.