Leveraging LLMs and Social Media to Understand User Perception of Smartphone-Based Earthquake Early Warnings

Android's Earthquake Alert (AEA) system provided timely early warnings to millions during the Mw 6.2 Marmara Ereglisi, Türkiye earthquake on April 23, 2025. This event, the largest in the region in 25 years, served as a critical real-world test for smartphone-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems. The AEA system successfully delivered alerts to users with high precision, offering over a minute of warning before the strongest shaking reached urban areas. This study leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze more than 500 public social media posts from the X platform, extracting 42 distinct attributes related to user experience and behavior. Statistical analyses revealed significant relationships, notably a strong correlation between user trust and alert timeliness. Our results indicate a distinction between engineering and the user-centric definition of system accuracy. We found that timeliness is accuracy in the user's mind. Overall, this study provides actionable insights for optimizing alert design, public education campaigns, and future behavioral research to improve the effectiveness of such systems in seismically active regions.

Gemini & Physical World: Large Language Models Can Estimate the Intensity of Earthquake Shaking from Multi-Modal Social Media Posts

This paper presents a novel approach for estimating the ground shaking intensity using social media data and CCTV footage. Employing the Gemini Pro (Reid et al. 2024) model, a multi-modal language model, we demonstrate the ability to extract relevant information from unstructured data utilizing generative AI and natural language processing. The model output, in the form of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values, align well with independent observational data. Furthermore, our results suggest that beyond its advanced visual and auditory understanding abilities, Gemini appears to utilize additional sources of knowledge, including a simplified understanding of the general relationship between earthquake magnitude, distance, and MMI intensity, which it presumably acquired during its training, in its reasoning and decision-making processes. These findings raise intriguing questions about the extent of Gemini's general understanding of the physical world and its phenomena. The ability of Gemini to generate results consistent with established scientific knowledge highlights the potential of LLMs like Gemini in augmenting our understanding of complex physical phenomena such as earthquakes. More specifically, the results of this study highlight the potential of LLMs like Gemini to revolutionize citizen seismology by enabling rapid, effective, and flexible analysis of crowdsourced data from eyewitness accounts for assessing earthquake impact and providing crisis situational awareness. This approach holds great promise for improving early warning systems, disaster response, and overall resilience in earthquake-prone regions. This study provides a significant step toward harnessing the power of social media and AI for earthquake disaster mitigation.