Physical Scales Matter: The Role of Receptive Fields and Advection in Satellite-Based Thunderstorm Nowcasting with Convolutional Neural Networks

The focus of nowcasting development is transitioning from physically motivated advection methods to purely data-driven Machine Learning (ML) approaches. Nevertheless, recent work indicates that incorporating advection into the ML value chain has improved skill for radar-based precipitation nowcasts. However, the generality of this approach and the underlying causes remain unexplored. This study investigates the generality by probing the approach on satellite-based thunderstorm nowcasts for the first time. Resorting to a scale argument, we then put forth an explanation when and why skill improvements can be expected. In essence, advection guarantees that thunderstorm patterns relevant for nowcasting are contained in the receptive field at long lead times. To test our hypotheses, we train ResU-Nets solving segmentation tasks with lightning observations as ground truth. The input of the Baseline Neural Network (BNN) are short time series of multispectral satellite imagery and lightning observations, whereas the Advection-Informed Neural Network (AINN) additionally receives the Lagrangian persistence nowcast of all input channels at the desired lead time. Overall, we find only a minor skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN when considering fully averaged scores. However, assessing skill conditioned on lead time and wind speed, we demonstrate that our scale argument correctly predicts the onset of skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN after 2h lead time. We confirm that generally advection becomes gradually more important with longer lead times and higher wind speeds. Our work accentuates the importance of considering and incorporating the underlying physical scales when designing ML based forecasting models.

The Error is the Feature: how to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error

Despite the progress throughout the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Most models which are currently operated by meteorological services around the world rely on numerical weather prediction, a system based on mathematical algorithms describing physical effects. Recent progress in artificial intelligence however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields, especially areas dealing with big data that can be used for training. Current approaches to predict thunderstorms often focus on indices describing temperature differences in the atmosphere. If these indices reach a critical threshold, the forecast system emits a thunderstorm warning. Other meteorological systems such as radar and lightning detection systems are added for a more precise prediction. This paper describes a new approach to the prediction of lightnings based on machine learning rather than complex numerical computations. The error of optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites is interpreted as a sign for convection potentially leading to thunderstorms. These results are used as the base for the feature generation phase incorporating different convolution steps. Tree classifier models are then trained to predict lightnings within the next few hours (called nowcasting) based on these features. The evaluation section compares the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result.