Uncertainty in Physics and AI: Taxonomy, Quantification, and Validation

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for physics, introducing a unified taxonomy of uncertainty and clarifying the interpretation of predictive and inference uncertainties across frequentist and Bayesian frameworks. We discuss principled validation tools, including coverage, calibration, bias tests, and proper scoring rules, and illustrate them with simple regression and classification examples.

BitHEP -- The Limits of Low-Precision ML in HEP

The increasing complexity of modern neural network architectures demands fast and memory-efficient implementations to mitigate computational bottlenecks. In this work, we evaluate the recently proposed BitNet architecture in HEP applications, assessing its performance in classification, regression, and generative modeling tasks. Specifically, we investigate its suitability for quark-gluon discrimination, SMEFT parameter estimation, and detector simulation, comparing its efficiency and accuracy to state-of-the-art methods. Our results show that while BitNet consistently performs competitively in classification tasks, its performance in regression and generation varies with the size and type of the network, highlighting key limitations and potential areas for improvement.

ELSA -- Enhanced latent spaces for improved collider simulations

Simulations play a key role for inference in collider physics. We explore various approaches for enhancing the precision of simulations using machine learning, including interventions at the end of the simulation chain (reweighting), at the beginning of the simulation chain (pre-processing), and connections between the end and beginning (latent space refinement). To clearly illustrate our approaches, we use W+jets matrix element surrogate simulations based on normalizing flows as a prototypical example. First, weights in the data space are derived using machine learning classifiers. Then, we pull back the data-space weights to the latent space to produce unweighted examples and employ the Latent Space Refinement (LASER) protocol using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. An alternative approach is an augmented normalizing flow, which allows for different dimensions in the latent and target spaces. These methods are studied for various pre-processing strategies, including a new and general method for massive particles at hadron colliders that is a tweak on the widely-used RAMBO-on-diet mapping. We find that modified simulations can achieve sub-percent precision across a wide range of phase space.

Latent Space Refinement for Deep Generative Models

Deep generative models are becoming widely used across science and industry for a variety of purposes. A common challenge is achieving a precise implicit or explicit representation of the data probability density. Recent proposals have suggested using classifier weights to refine the learned density of deep generative models. We extend this idea to all types of generative models and show how latent space refinement via iterated generative modeling can circumvent topological obstructions and improve precision. This methodology also applies to cases were the target model is non-differentiable and has many internal latent dimensions which must be marginalized over before refinement. We demonstrate our Latent Space Refinement (LaSeR) protocol on a variety of examples, focusing on the combinations of Normalizing Flows and Generative Adversarial Networks.