All-Clear Flare Prediction Using Interval-based Time Series Classifiers

An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable predictive results. While many flare prediction studies do not address this problem directly, all-clear predictions can be useful in operational context. However, in all-clear predictions, finding the right balance between avoiding false negatives (misses) and reducing the false positives (false alarms) is often challenging. Our study focuses on training and testing a set of interval-based time series classifiers named Time Series Forest (TSF). These classifiers will be used towards building an all-clear flare prediction system by utilizing multivariate time series data. Throughout this paper, we demonstrate our data collection, predictive model building and evaluation processes, and compare our time series classification models with baselines using our benchmark datasets. Our results show that time series classifiers provide better forecasting results in terms of skill scores, precision and recall metrics, and they can be further improved for more precise all-clear forecasts by tuning model hyperparameters.

Machine Learning in Heliophysics and Space Weather Forecasting: A White Paper of Findings and Recommendations

The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers, expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants.