DynaPix: Can Vision-Language Models Identify the Exact Future?

Acting in a physical scene requires knowing its real later state, not a plausible one. Current evaluations often accept words or a realistic-looking image, so the predicted state is never checked against the true one. We introduce DynaPix (Dynamic Pixels), a benchmark that makes prediction checkable. Given a video clip that stops before a key event and a question about a later moment, a model must pick the true future image from close candidates or a large gallery. The scenes come from a physics simulator, so the correct image and its time are known exactly and the wrong options are deliberately similar. Models often succeed when a visible event marks the target moment, but are near chance when only elapsed time marks it. Gallery search is harder still, as the true image rarely ranks first. People handle the elapsed-time items well, so the difficulty lies with the models, not the questions. Training on scene accounts drawn from the simulator's true record, not a teacher's guess, repairs much of this but not the longer elapsed time case. DynaPix thus exposes a temporal-anchoring gap: models attach a prediction to an event far better than to time itself.

Predict, Then Retrieve: Cross-Instance Future-State Retrieval from Video Prefixes

We introduce Predictive State Retrieval (PSR), a task in which a model observes a short video prefix and a temporal question about an object's future state, then retrieves instances from other videos or images that depict that state. Unlike action anticipation, which predicts a label, moment retrieval, which localizes an observed event within a video, or video generation, which synthesizes pixels, PSR combines anticipation with cross-instance retrieval across multiple temporal horizons. We construct a benchmark from four datasets with graded, human-validated ground truth, difficulty tiers, and an oracle ceiling. We also propose LFTR, a lightweight retriever with frozen encoders that predicts a question- and horizon-conditioned future latent and matches it in complementary semantic and visual spaces. A ceiling decomposition reveals a clear bottleneck: the true future state is highly retrievable once specified, whereas every predictor we evaluate, including a large multimodal language model with access to the prefix frames, remains far below the oracle. Thus, forecasting rather than perception is the central learnable challenge. LFTR narrows this gap at substantially lower inference cost, and ablations attribute its gains to cross-space fusion and hard-negative training rather than latent rollout. We release the benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts.

When Depth Is Better Told Than Shown: Depth-Ordinal Prompting for Vision-Language Spatial Reasoning

Vision-language models (VLMs) are expected to reason about physical space -- which object is closer, what lies behind what, and how objects are arranged in 3D -- yet they still struggle with such spatial judgments. A natural remedy is to show the model a depth map, but we find that this can make performance worse. We show that depth is not absent: it reaches the language model, but becomes difficult to access for downstream reasoning, while rendered pseudo-depth maps act as noisy auxiliary images that frozen VLMs cannot easily regulate. We propose Depth-Ordinal Prompting (DOP), a training-free method that converts monocular depth into a single question-targeted ordinal text cue at the queried objects, without adding a depth image, training a module, injecting features, or using labels. Our key finding is form dependence: the same depth signal can hurt when shown as an image but help when told as text.Across benchmarks, models, and depth estimators, DOP improves spatial reasoning when pseudo-depth provides reliable object-level ordering and remains largely neutral in strong original-image regimes. It is also competitive with the strongest training-free depth-prompting alternative while being simpler and more targeted.

TIGER: Text-Conditioned Visual Gated Routing with Acceptance Alignment for Multimodal Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by letting a lightweight drafter propose multiple tokens that are verified by a larger target model. Although effective for text-only LLMs, speculative decoding yields limited gains in VLMs because drafters often diverge on vision-critical content, while existing multimodal acceleration methods do not directly address irrelevant visual evidence or optimize the verifier-accepted prefix length that governs speedup. We propose TIGER, a Text-conditioned vIsual GatEd Routing framework for multimodal speculative decoding. TIGER dynamically selects a sparse set of context-relevant visual tokens based on the drafter's current textual state, rather than expose the full visual token set or a fixed compressed interface. To better align training with inference-time efficiency, we optimize the drafter with acceptance-aligned group-based policy training using verifier-derived rewards based on accepted prefix length, built on top of distillation warm start with KL anchoring. This encourages the drafter not only to imitate the target model, but also to produce speculative continuations that survive verification for longer prefixes. Experiments show that TIGER yields consistent gains in accepted prefix length and speculative speedup under exact verifier-side speculative decoding, while achieving favorable quality-latency trade-offs with comparable downstream accuracy in visual-routing analyses.