Remote Sensing Data Assimilation with a Chained Hydrologic-hydraulic Model for Flood Forecasting

A chained hydrologic-hydraulic model is implemented using predicted runoff from a large-scale hydrologic model (namely ISBA-CTRIP) as inputs to local hydrodynamic models (TELEMAC-2D) to issue forecasts of water level and flood extent. The uncertainties in the hydrological forcing and in friction parameters are reduced by an Ensemble Kalman Filter that jointly assimilates in-situ water levels and flood extent maps derived from remote sensing observations. The data assimilation framework is cycled in a real-time forecasting configuration. A cycle consists of a reanalysis and a forecast phase. Over the analysis, observations up to the present are assimilated. An ensemble is then initialized from the last analyzed states and issued forecasts for next 36 hr. Three strategies of forcing data for this forecast are investigated: (i) using CTRIP runoff for reanalysis and forecast, (ii) using observed discharge for analysis, then CTRIP runoff for forecast and (iii) using observed discharge for reanalysis and keep a persistent discharge value for forecast. It was shown that the data assimilation strategy provides a reliable reanalysis in hindcast mode. The combination of observed discharge and CTRIP runoff provides the most accurate results. For all strategies, the quality of the forecast decreases as the lead time increases. When the errors in CTRIP forcing are non-stationary, the forecast capability may be reduced. This work demonstrates that the forcing provided by a hydrologic model, while imperfect, can be efficiently used as input to a hydraulic model to issue reanalysis and forecasts, thanks to the assimilation of in-situ and remote sensing observations.

Reducing Uncertainties of a Chained Hydrologic-hydraulic Model to Improve Flood Forecasting Using Multi-source Earth Observation Data

The challenges in operational flood forecasting lie in producing reliable forecasts given constrained computational resources and within processing times that are compatible with near-real-time forecasting. Flood hydrodynamic models exploit observed data from gauge networks, e.g. water surface elevation (WSE) and/or discharge that describe the forcing time-series at the upstream and lateral boundary conditions of the model. A chained hydrologic-hydraulic model is thus interesting to allow extended lead time forecasts and overcome the limits of forecast when using only observed gauge measurements. This research work focuses on comprehensively reducing the uncertainties in the model parameters, hydraulic state and especially the forcing data in order to improve the overall flood reanalysis and forecast performance. It aims at assimilating two main complementary EO data sources, namely in-situ WSE and SAR-derived flood extent observations.