Can Artificial Intelligence Accelerate Technological Progress? Researchers' Perspectives on AI in Manufacturing and Materials Science

Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological and scientific progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes. Accordingly, it remains unclear how and to what extent AI can accelerate innovation. To help to fill this gap, we report results from 32 interviews with U.S.-based academic manufacturing and materials sciences researchers experienced with AI and machine learning (ML) techniques. Interviewees primarily used AI for modeling of materials and manufacturing processes, facilitating cheaper and more rapid search of design spaces for materials and manufacturing processes alike. They report benefits including cost, time, and computation savings in technology development. However, interviewees also report that AI/ML tools are unreliable outside design spaces for which dense data are already available; that they require skilled and judicious application in tandem with older research techniques; and that AI/ML tools may detrimentally circumvent opportunities for disruptive theoretical advancement. Based on these results, we suggest there is reason for optimism about acceleration in sustaining innovations through the use of to AI/ML; but that support for conventional empirical, computational, and theoretical research is required to maintain the likelihood of further major advances in manufacturing and materials science.

Rise of Generative Artificial Intelligence in Science

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI, generative AI) has rapidly become available as a tool in scientific research. To explore the use of generative AI in science, we conduct an empirical analysis using OpenAlex. Analyzing GenAI publications and other AI publications from 2017 to 2023, we profile growth patterns, the diffusion of GenAI publications across fields of study, and the geographical spread of scientific research on generative AI. We also investigate team size and international collaborations to explore whether GenAI, as an emerging scientific research area, shows different collaboration patterns compared to other AI technologies. The results indicate that generative AI has experienced rapid growth and increasing presence in scientific publications. The use of GenAI now extends beyond computer science to other scientific research domains. Over the study period, U.S. researchers contributed nearly two-fifths of global GenAI publications. The U.S. is followed by China, with several small and medium-sized advanced economies demonstrating relatively high levels of GenAI deployment in their research publications. Although scientific research overall is becoming increasingly specialized and collaborative, our results suggest that GenAI research groups tend to have slightly smaller team sizes than found in other AI fields. Furthermore, notwithstanding recent geopolitical tensions, GenAI research continues to exhibit levels of international collaboration comparable to other AI technologies.

Applications and Societal Implications of Artificial Intelligence in Manufacturing: A Systematic Review

This paper undertakes a systematic review of relevant extant literature to consider the potential societal implications of the growth of AI in manufacturing. We analyze the extensive range of AI applications in this domain, such as interfirm logistics coordination, firm procurement management, predictive maintenance, and shop-floor monitoring and control of processes, machinery, and workers. Additionally, we explore the uncertain societal implications of industrial AI, including its impact on the workforce, job upskilling and deskilling, cybersecurity vulnerability, and environmental consequences. After building a typology of AI applications in manufacturing, we highlight the diverse possibilities for AI's implementation at different scales and application types. We discuss the importance of considering AI's implications both for individual firms and for society at large, encompassing economic prosperity, equity, environmental health, and community safety and security. The study finds that there is a predominantly optimistic outlook in prior literature regarding AI's impact on firms, but that there is substantial debate and contention about adverse effects and the nature of AI's societal implications. The paper draws analogies to historical cases and other examples to provide a contextual perspective on potential societal effects of industrial AI. Ultimately, beneficial integration of AI in manufacturing will depend on the choices and priorities of various stakeholders, including firms and their managers and owners, technology developers, civil society organizations, and governments. A broad and balanced awareness of opportunities and risks among stakeholders is vital not only for successful and safe technical implementation but also to construct a socially beneficial and sustainable future for manufacturing in the age of AI.

Large-Scale Text Analysis Using Generative Language Models: A Case Study in Discovering Public Value Expressions in AI Patents

Labeling data is essential for training text classifiers but is often difficult to accomplish accurately, especially for complex and abstract concepts. Seeking an improved method, this paper employs a novel approach using a generative language model (GPT-4) to produce labels and rationales for large-scale text analysis. We apply this approach to the task of discovering public value expressions in US AI patents. We collect a database comprising 154,934 patent documents using an advanced Boolean query submitted to InnovationQ+. The results are merged with full patent text from the USPTO, resulting in 5.4 million sentences. We design a framework for identifying and labeling public value expressions in these AI patent sentences. A prompt for GPT-4 is developed which includes definitions, guidelines, examples, and rationales for text classification. We evaluate the quality of the labels and rationales produced by GPT-4 using BLEU scores and topic modeling and find that they are accurate, diverse, and faithful. These rationales also serve as a chain-of-thought for the model, a transparent mechanism for human verification, and support for human annotators to overcome cognitive limitations. We conclude that GPT-4 achieved a high-level of recognition of public value theory from our framework, which it also uses to discover unseen public value expressions. We use the labels produced by GPT-4 to train BERT-based classifiers and predict sentences on the entire database, achieving high F1 scores for the 3-class (0.85) and 2-class classification (0.91) tasks. We discuss the implications of our approach for conducting large-scale text analyses with complex and abstract concepts and suggest that, with careful framework design and interactive human oversight, generative language models can offer significant advantages in quality and in reduced time and costs for producing labels and rationales.