Can Artificial Intelligence Accelerate Technological Progress? Researchers' Perspectives on AI in Manufacturing and Materials Science

Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological and scientific progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes. Accordingly, it remains unclear how and to what extent AI can accelerate innovation. To help to fill this gap, we report results from 32 interviews with U.S.-based academic manufacturing and materials sciences researchers experienced with AI and machine learning (ML) techniques. Interviewees primarily used AI for modeling of materials and manufacturing processes, facilitating cheaper and more rapid search of design spaces for materials and manufacturing processes alike. They report benefits including cost, time, and computation savings in technology development. However, interviewees also report that AI/ML tools are unreliable outside design spaces for which dense data are already available; that they require skilled and judicious application in tandem with older research techniques; and that AI/ML tools may detrimentally circumvent opportunities for disruptive theoretical advancement. Based on these results, we suggest there is reason for optimism about acceleration in sustaining innovations through the use of to AI/ML; but that support for conventional empirical, computational, and theoretical research is required to maintain the likelihood of further major advances in manufacturing and materials science.