Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood $p \sim \text{Beta}(α, β)$ and outcome $y \sim \text{Bernoulli}(p)$, with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

TorchXRayVision: A library of chest X-ray datasets and models

TorchXRayVision is an open source software library for working with chest X-ray datasets and deep learning models. It provides a common interface and common pre-processing chain for a wide set of publicly available chest X-ray datasets. In addition, a number of classification and representation learning models with different architectures, trained on different data combinations, are available through the library to serve as baselines or feature extractors.