$Δ\text{-}{\rm OPE}$: Off-Policy Estimation with Pairs of Policies

The off-policy paradigm casts recommendation as a counterfactual decision-making task, allowing practitioners to unbiasedly estimate online metrics using offline data. This leads to effective evaluation metrics, as well as learning procedures that directly optimise online success. Nevertheless, the high variance that comes with unbiasedness is typically the crux that complicates practical applications. An important insight is that the difference between policy values can often be estimated with significantly reduced variance, if said policies have positive covariance. This allows us to formulate a pairwise off-policy estimation task: $\Delta\text{-}{\rm OPE}$. $\Delta\text{-}{\rm OPE}$ subsumes the common use-case of estimating improvements of a learnt policy over a production policy, using data collected by a stochastic logging policy. We introduce $\Delta\text{-}{\rm OPE}$ methods based on the widely used Inverse Propensity Scoring estimator and its extensions. Moreover, we characterise a variance-optimal additive control variate that further enhances efficiency. Simulated, offline, and online experiments show that our methods significantly improve performance for both evaluation and learning tasks.

Optimal Baseline Corrections for Off-Policy Contextual Bandits

The off-policy learning paradigm allows for recommender systems and general ranking applications to be framed as decision-making problems, where we aim to learn decision policies that optimize an unbiased offline estimate of an online reward metric. With unbiasedness comes potentially high variance, and prevalent methods exist to reduce estimation variance. These methods typically make use of control variates, either additive (i.e., baseline corrections or doubly robust methods) or multiplicative (i.e., self-normalisation). Our work unifies these approaches by proposing a single framework built on their equivalence in learning scenarios. The foundation of our framework is the derivation of an equivalent baseline correction for all of the existing control variates. Consequently, our framework enables us to characterize the variance-optimal unbiased estimator and provide a closed-form solution for it. This optimal estimator brings significantly improved performance in both evaluation and learning, and minimizes data requirements. Empirical observations corroborate our theoretical findings.

Multi-Objective Recommendation via Multivariate Policy Learning

Real-world recommender systems often need to balance multiple objectives when deciding which recommendations to present to users. These include behavioural signals (e.g. clicks, shares, dwell time), as well as broader objectives (e.g. diversity, fairness). Scalarisation methods are commonly used to handle this balancing task, where a weighted average of per-objective reward signals determines the final score used for ranking. Naturally, how these weights are computed exactly, is key to success for any online platform. We frame this as a decision-making task, where the scalarisation weights are actions taken to maximise an overall North Star reward (e.g. long-term user retention or growth). We extend existing policy learning methods to the continuous multivariate action domain, proposing to maximise a pessimistic lower bound on the North Star reward that the learnt policy will yield. Typical lower bounds based on normal approximations suffer from insufficient coverage, and we propose an efficient and effective policy-dependent correction for this. We provide guidance to design stochastic data collection policies, as well as highly sensitive reward signals. Empirical observations from simulations, offline and online experiments highlight the efficacy of our deployed approach.

Learning Metrics that Maximise Power for Accelerated A/B-Tests

Online controlled experiments are a crucial tool to allow for confident decision-making in technology companies. A North Star metric is defined (such as long-term revenue or user retention), and system variants that statistically significantly improve on this metric in an A/B-test can be considered superior. North Star metrics are typically delayed and insensitive. As a result, the cost of experimentation is high: experiments need to run for a long time, and even then, type-II errors (i.e. false negatives) are prevalent. We propose to tackle this by learning metrics from short-term signals that directly maximise the statistical power they harness with respect to the North Star. We show that existing approaches are prone to overfitting, in that higher average metric sensitivity does not imply improved type-II errors, and propose to instead minimise the $p$-values a metric would have produced on a log of past experiments. We collect such datasets from two social media applications with over 160 million Monthly Active Users each, totalling over 153 A/B-pairs. Empirical results show that we are able to increase statistical power by up to 78% when using our learnt metrics stand-alone, and by up to 210% when used in tandem with the North Star. Alternatively, we can obtain constant statistical power at a sample size that is down to 12% of what the North Star requires, significantly reducing the cost of experimentation.

Learning-to-Rank with Nested Feedback

Many platforms on the web present ranked lists of content to users, typically optimized for engagement-, satisfaction- or retention- driven metrics. Advances in the Learning-to-Rank (LTR) research literature have enabled rapid growth in this application area. Several popular interfaces now include nested lists, where users can enter a 2nd-level feed via any given 1st-level item. Naturally, this has implications for evaluation metrics, objective functions, and the ranking policies we wish to learn. We propose a theoretically grounded method to incorporate 2nd-level feedback into any 1st-level ranking model. Online experiments on a large-scale recommendation system confirm our theoretical findings.

Variance Reduction in Ratio Metrics for Efficient Online Experiments

Online controlled experiments, such as A/B-tests, are commonly used by modern tech companies to enable continuous system improvements. Despite their paramount importance, A/B-tests are expensive: by their very definition, a percentage of traffic is assigned an inferior system variant. To ensure statistical significance on top-level metrics, online experiments typically run for several weeks. Even then, a considerable amount of experiments will lead to inconclusive results (i.e. false negatives, or type-II error). The main culprit for this inefficiency is the variance of the online metrics. Variance reduction techniques have been proposed in the literature, but their direct applicability to commonly used ratio metrics (e.g. click-through rate or user retention) is limited. In this work, we successfully apply variance reduction techniques to ratio metrics on a large-scale short-video platform: ShareChat. Our empirical results show that we can either improve A/B-test confidence in 77% of cases, or can retain the same level of confidence with 30% fewer data points. Importantly, we show that the common approach of including as many covariates as possible in regression is counter-productive, highlighting that control variates based on Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree predictors are most effective. We discuss the practicalities of implementing these methods at scale and showcase the cost reduction they beget.

On Gradient Boosted Decision Trees and Neural Rankers: A Case-Study on Short-Video Recommendations at ShareChat

Practitioners who wish to build real-world applications that rely on ranking models, need to decide which modelling paradigm to follow. This is not an easy choice to make, as the research literature on this topic has been shifting in recent years. In particular, whilst Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) have reigned supreme for more than a decade, the flexibility of neural networks has allowed them to catch up, and recent works report accuracy metrics that are on par. Nevertheless, practical systems require considerations beyond mere accuracy metrics to decide on a modelling approach. This work describes our experiences in balancing some of the trade-offs that arise, presenting a case study on a short-video recommendation application. We highlight (1) neural networks' ability to handle large training data size, user- and item-embeddings allows for more accurate models than GBDTs in this setting, and (2) because GBDTs are less reliant on specialised hardware, they can provide an equally accurate model at a lower cost. We believe these findings are of relevance to researchers in both academia and industry, and hope they can inspire practitioners who need to make similar modelling choices in the future.

Ad-load Balancing via Off-policy Learning in a Content Marketplace

Ad-load balancing is a critical challenge in online advertising systems, particularly in the context of social media platforms, where the goal is to maximize user engagement and revenue while maintaining a satisfactory user experience. This requires the optimization of conflicting objectives, such as user satisfaction and ads revenue. Traditional approaches to ad-load balancing rely on static allocation policies, which fail to adapt to changing user preferences and contextual factors. In this paper, we present an approach that leverages off-policy learning and evaluation from logged bandit feedback. We start by presenting a motivating analysis of the ad-load balancing problem, highlighting the conflicting objectives between user satisfaction and ads revenue. We emphasize the nuances that arise due to user heterogeneity and the dependence on the user's position within a session. Based on this analysis, we define the problem as determining the optimal ad-load for a particular feed fetch. To tackle this problem, we propose an off-policy learning framework that leverages unbiased estimators such as Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS) and Doubly Robust (DR) to learn and estimate the policy values using offline collected stochastic data. We present insights from online A/B experiments deployed at scale across over 80 million users generating over 200 million sessions, where we find statistically significant improvements in both user satisfaction metrics and ads revenue for the platform.

Offline Recommender System Evaluation under Unobserved Confounding

Off-Policy Estimation (OPE) methods allow us to learn and evaluate decision-making policies from logged data. This makes them an attractive choice for the offline evaluation of recommender systems, and several recent works have reported successful adoption of OPE methods to this end. An important assumption that makes this work is the absence of unobserved confounders: random variables that influence both actions and rewards at data collection time. Because the data collection policy is typically under the practitioner's control, the unconfoundedness assumption is often left implicit, and its violations are rarely dealt with in the existing literature. This work aims to highlight the problems that arise when performing off-policy estimation in the presence of unobserved confounders, specifically focusing on a recommendation use-case. We focus on policy-based estimators, where the logging propensities are learned from logged data. We characterise the statistical bias that arises due to confounding, and show how existing diagnostics are unable to uncover such cases. Because the bias depends directly on the true and unobserved logging propensities, it is non-identifiable. As the unconfoundedness assumption is famously untestable, this becomes especially problematic. This paper emphasises this common, yet often overlooked issue. Through synthetic data, we empirically show how na\"ive propensity estimation under confounding can lead to severely biased metric estimates that are allowed to fly under the radar. We aim to cultivate an awareness among researchers and practitioners of this important problem, and touch upon potential research directions towards mitigating its effects.

On Discounted Cumulative Gain as an Offline Evaluation Metric for Top-$n$ Recommendation

Approaches to recommendation are typically evaluated in one of two ways: (1) via a (simulated) online experiment, often seen as the gold standard, or (2) via some offline evaluation procedure, where the goal is to approximate the outcome of an online experiment. Several offline evaluation metrics have been adopted in the literature, inspired by ranking metrics prevalent in the field of Information Retrieval. (Normalised) Discounted Cumulative Gain (nDCG) is one such metric that has seen widespread adoption in empirical studies, and higher (n)DCG values have been used to present new methods as the state-of-the-art in top-$n$ recommendation for many years. Our work takes a critical look at this approach, and investigates when we can expect such metrics to approximate the gold standard outcome of an online experiment. We formally present the assumptions that are necessary to consider DCG an unbiased estimator of online reward and provide a derivation for this metric from first principles, highlighting where we deviate from its traditional uses in IR. Importantly, we show that normalising the metric renders it inconsistent, in that even when DCG is unbiased, ranking competing methods by their normalised DCG can invert their relative order. Through a correlation analysis between off- and on-line experiments conducted on a large-scale recommendation platform, we show that our unbiased DCG estimates strongly correlate with online reward, even when some of the metric's inherent assumptions are violated. This statement no longer holds for its normalised variant, suggesting that nDCG's practical utility may be limited.