Evaluating the Determinants of Mode Choice Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques in the Indian Megacity of Bengaluru

The decision making involved behind the mode choice is critical for transportation planning. While statistical learning techniques like discrete choice models have been used traditionally, machine learning (ML) models have gained traction recently among the transportation planners due to their higher predictive performance. However, the black box nature of ML models pose significant interpretability challenges, limiting their practical application in decision and policy making. This study utilised a dataset of $1350$ households belonging to low and low-middle income bracket in the city of Bengaluru to investigate mode choice decision making behaviour using Multinomial logit model and ML classifiers like decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting and support vector machines. In terms of accuracy, random forest model performed the best ($0.788$ on training data and $0.605$ on testing data) compared to all the other models. This research has adopted modern interpretability techniques like feature importance and individual conditional expectation plots to explain the decision making behaviour using ML models. A higher travel costs significantly reduce the predicted probability of bus usage compared to other modes (a $0.66\%$ and $0.34\%$ reduction using Random Forests and XGBoost model for $10\%$ increase in travel cost). However, reducing travel time by $10\%$ increases the preference for the metro ($0.16\%$ in Random Forests and 0.42% in XGBoost). This research augments the ongoing research on mode choice analysis using machine learning techniques, which would help in improving the understanding of the performance of these models with real-world data in terms of both accuracy and interpretability.

Compression Spectrum: Where Shannon meets Fourier

Signal processing and Information theory are two disparate fields used for characterizing signals for various scientific and engineering applications. Spectral/Fourier analysis, a technique employed in signal processing, helps estimation of power at different frequency components present in the signal. Characterizing a time-series based on its average amount of information (Shannon entropy) is useful for estimating its complexity and compressibility (eg., for communication applications). Information theory doesn't deal with spectral content while signal processing doesn't directly consider the information content or compressibility of the signal. In this work, we attempt to bring the fields of signal processing and information theory together by using a lossless data compression algorithm to estimate the amount of information or `compressibility' of time series at different scales. To this end, we employ the Effort-to-Compress (ETC) algorithm to obtain what we call as a Compression Spectrum. This new tool for signal analysis is demonstrated on synthetically generated periodic signals, a sinusoid, chaotic signals (weak and strong chaos) and uniform random noise. The Compression Spectrum is applied on heart interbeat intervals (RR) obtained from real-world normal young and elderly subjects. The compression spectrum of healthy young RR tachograms in the log-log scale shows behaviour similar to $1/f$ noise whereas the healthy old RR tachograms show a different behaviour. We envisage exciting possibilities and future applications of the Compression Spectrum.

To prune or not to prune : A chaos-causality approach to principled pruning of dense neural networks

Reducing the size of a neural network (pruning) by removing weights without impacting its performance is an important problem for resource-constrained devices. In the past, pruning was typically accomplished by ranking or penalizing weights based on criteria like magnitude and removing low-ranked weights before retraining the remaining ones. Pruning strategies may also involve removing neurons from the network in order to achieve the desired reduction in network size. We formulate pruning as an optimization problem with the objective of minimizing misclassifications by selecting specific weights. To accomplish this, we have introduced the concept of chaos in learning (Lyapunov exponents) via weight updates and exploiting causality to identify the causal weights responsible for misclassification. Such a pruned network maintains the original performance and retains feature explainability.

Permutation Decision Trees

Decision Tree is a well understood Machine Learning model that is based on minimizing impurities in the internal nodes. The most common impurity measures are Shannon entropy and Gini impurity. These impurity measures are insensitive to the order of training data and hence the final tree obtained is invariant to any permutation of the data. This leads to a serious limitation in modeling data instances that have order dependencies. In this work, we propose the use of Effort-To-Compress (ETC) - a complexity measure, for the first time, as an impurity measure. Unlike Shannon entropy and Gini impurity, structural impurity based on ETC is able to capture order dependencies in the data, thus obtaining potentially different decision trees for different permutations of the same data instances (Permutation Decision Trees). We then introduce the notion of Permutation Bagging achieved using permutation decision trees without the need for random feature selection and sub-sampling. We compare the performance of the proposed permutation bagged decision trees with Random Forests. Our model does not assume that the data instances are independent and identically distributed. Potential applications include scenarios where a temporal order present in the data instances is to be respected.

Cause-Effect Preservation and Classification using Neurochaos Learning

Discovering cause-effect from observational data is an important but challenging problem in science and engineering. In this work, a recently proposed brain inspired learning algorithm namely-\emph{Neurochaos Learning} (NL) is used for the classification of cause-effect from simulated data. The data instances used are generated from coupled AR processes, coupled 1D chaotic skew tent maps, coupled 1D chaotic logistic maps and a real-world prey-predator system. The proposed method consistently outperforms a five layer Deep Neural Network architecture for coupling coefficient values ranging from $0.1$ to $0.7$. Further, we investigate the preservation of causality in the feature extracted space of NL using Granger Causality (GC) for coupled AR processes and and Compression-Complexity Causality (CCC) for coupled chaotic systems and real-world prey-predator dataset. This ability of NL to preserve causality under a chaotic transformation and successfully classify cause and effect time series (including a transfer learning scenario) is highly desirable in causal machine learning applications.

Learning Generalized Causal Structure in Time-series

The science of causality explains/determines 'cause-effect' relationship between the entities of a system by providing mathematical tools for the purpose. In spite of all the success and widespread applications of machine-learning (ML) algorithms, these algorithms are based on statistical learning alone. Currently, they are nowhere close to 'human-like' intelligence as they fail to answer and learn based on the important "Why?" questions. Hence, researchers are attempting to integrate ML with the science of causality. Among the many causal learning issues encountered by ML, one is that these algorithms are dumb to the temporal order or structure in data. In this work we develop a machine learning pipeline based on a recently proposed 'neurochaos' feature learning technique (ChaosFEX feature extractor), that helps us to learn generalized causal-structure in given time-series data.

Causal Analysis of Carnatic Music: A Preliminary Study

The musicological analysis of Carnatic music is challenging, owing to its rich structure and complexity. Automated \textit{r\=aga} classification, pitch detection, tonal analysis, modelling and information retrieval of this form of southern Indian classical music have, however, made significant progress in recent times. A causal analysis to investigate the musicological structure of Carnatic compositions and the identification of the relationships embedded in them have never been previously attempted. In this study, we propose a novel framework for causal discovery, using a compression-complexity measure. Owing to the limited number of compositions available, however, we generated surrogates to further facilitate the analysis of the prevailing causal relationships. Our analysis indicates that the context-free grammar, inferred from more complex compositions, such as the \textit{M\=e\d{l}akarta} \textit{r\=aga}, are a \textit{structural cause} for the \textit{Janya} \textit{r\=aga}. We also analyse certain special cases of the \textit{Janya r\=aga} in order to understand their origins and structure better.

FCPSO-em : Leveraging Momentum & Constriction Fairness for Multi-Objective Optimization

We have adapted the use of exponentially averaged momentum in PSO to multi-objective optimization problems. The algorithm was built on top of SMPSO, a state-of-the-art MOO solver, and we present a novel mathematical analysis of constriction fairness. We extend this analysis to the use of momentum and propose rich alternatives of parameter sets which are theoretically sound. We call our proposed algorithm "Fairly Constricted PSO with Exponentially-Averaged Momentum", FCPSO-em.

When Noise meets Chaos: Stochastic Resonance in Neurochaos Learning

Chaos and Noise are ubiquitous in the Brain. Inspired by the chaotic firing of neurons and the constructive role of noise in neuronal models, we for the first time connect chaos, noise and learning. In this paper, we demonstrate Stochastic Resonance (SR) phenomenon in Neurochaos Learning (NL). SR manifests at the level of a single neuron of NL and enables efficient subthreshold signal detection. Furthermore, SR is shown to occur in single and multiple neuronal NL architecture for classification tasks - both on simulated and real-world spoken digit datasets. Intermediate levels of noise in neurochaos learning enables peak performance in classification tasks thus highlighting the role of SR in AI applications, especially in brain inspired learning architectures.

Causal Discovery using Compression-Complexity Measures

Causal inference is one of the most fundamental problems across all domains of science. We address the problem of inferring a causal direction from two observed discrete symbolic sequences X and Y. We present a framework which relies on lossless compressors for inferring context-free grammars (CFGs) from sequence pairs and quantifies the extent to which the grammar inferred from one sequence compresses the other sequence. We infer X causes Y if the grammar inferred from X better compresses Y than in the other direction. To put this notion to practice, we propose three models that use the Compression-Complexity Measures (CCMs) - Lempel-Ziv (LZ) complexity and Effort-To-Compress (ETC) to infer CFGs and discover causal directions. We evaluate these models on synthetic and real-world benchmarks and empirically observe performances competitive with current state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we present a unique application of the proposed models for causal inference directly from pairs of genome sequences belonging to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using a large number of sequences, we show that our models capture directed causal information exchange between sequence pairs, presenting novel opportunities for addressing key issues such as contact-tracing, motif discovery, evolution of virulence and pathogenicity in future applications.