Optimal Experimental Design for Staggered Rollouts

Experimentation has become an increasingly prevalent tool for guiding policy choices, firm decisions, and product innovation. A common hurdle in designing experiments is the lack of statistical power. In this paper, we study optimal multi-period experimental design under the constraint that the treatment cannot be easily removed once implemented; for example, a government or firm might implement treatment in different geographies at different times, where the treatment cannot be easily removed due to practical constraints. The design problem is to select which units to treat at which time, intending to test hypotheses about the effect of the treatment. When the potential outcome is a linear function of a unit effect, a time effect, and observed discrete covariates, we provide an analytically feasible solution to the design problem where the variance of the estimator for the treatment effect is at most 1+O(1/N^2) times the variance of the optimal design, where N is the number of units. This solution assigns units in a staggered treatment adoption pattern, where the proportion treated is a linear function of time. In the general setting where outcomes depend on latent covariates, we show that historical data can be utilized in the optimal design. We propose a data-driven local search algorithm with the minimax decision criterion to assign units to treatment times. We demonstrate that our approach improves upon benchmark experimental designs through synthetic experiments on real-world data sets from several domains, including healthcare, finance, and retail. Finally, we consider the case where the treatment effect changes with the time of treatment, showing that the optimal design treats a smaller fraction of units at the beginning and a greater share at the end.

On Low-rank Trace Regression under General Sampling Distribution

A growing number of modern statistical learning problems involve estimating a large number of parameters from a (smaller) number of observations. In a subset of these problems (matrix completion, matrix compressed sensing, and multi-task learning) the unknown parameters form a high-dimensional matrix, and two popular approaches for the estimation are trace-norm regularized linear regression or alternating minimization. It is also known that these estimators satisfy certain optimal tail bounds under assumptions on rank, coherence, or spikiness of the unknown matrix. We study a general family of estimators and sampling distribution that include the above two estimators, and introduce a general notion of spikiness and rank for the unknown matrix. Next, we extend the existing literature on the analysis of these estimators and provide a unifying technique to prove tail bounds for the estimation error. We demonstrate the benefit of this generalization by studying its application to four problems of (1) matrix completion, (2) multi-task learning, (3) compressed sensing with Gaussian ensembles, and (4) compressed sensing with factored measurements. For (1) and (3), we recover matching tail bounds as those found in the literature, and for (2) and (4) we obtain (to the best of our knowledge) the first tail bounds. Our approach relies on a generic recipe to prove restricted strong convexity for the sampling operator of the trace regression, that only requires finding upper bounds on certain norms of the parameter matrix.

Mostly Exploration-Free Algorithms for Contextual Bandits

The contextual bandit literature has traditionally focused on algorithms that address the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In particular, greedy algorithms that exploit current estimates without any exploration may be sub-optimal in general. However, exploration-free greedy algorithms are desirable in practical settings where exploration may be costly or unethical (e.g., clinical trials). Surprisingly, we find that a simple greedy algorithm can be rate-optimal (achieves asymptotically optimal regret) if there is sufficient randomness in the observed contexts (covariates). We prove that this is always the case for a two-armed bandit under a general class of context distributions that satisfy a condition we term $\textit{covariate diversity}$. Furthermore, even absent this condition, we show that a greedy algorithm can be rate optimal with positive probability. Thus, standard bandit algorithms may unnecessarily explore. Motivated by these results, we introduce Greedy-First, a new algorithm that uses only observed contexts and rewards to determine whether to follow a greedy algorithm or to explore. We prove that this algorithm is rate-optimal without any additional assumptions on the context distribution or the number of arms. Extensive simulations demonstrate that Greedy-First successfully reduces exploration and outperforms existing (exploration-based) contextual bandit algorithms such as Thompson sampling or upper confidence bound (UCB).

Scalable Approximations for Generalized Linear Problems

In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk. However, in the large-scale setting, minimization of the empirical risk may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an efficient algorithm to approximate the population risk minimizer in generalized linear problems such as binary classification with surrogate losses and generalized linear regression models. We focus on large-scale problems, where the iterative minimization of the empirical risk is computationally intractable, i.e., the number of observations $n$ is much larger than the dimension of the parameter $p$, i.e. $n \gg p \gg 1$. We show that under random sub-Gaussian design, the true minimizer of the population risk is approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the empirical risk minimizer through iterations that attain up to a cubic convergence rate, and that are cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of $\mathcal{O}(p)$. We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on well-known classification and regression problems, through extensive numerical studies on large-scale datasets, and show that it achieves the highest performance compared to several other widely used and specialized optimization algorithms.

Dynamic Pricing with Demand Covariates

We consider a firm that sells products over $T$ periods without knowing the demand function. The firm sequentially sets prices to earn revenue and to learn the underlying demand function simultaneously. A natural heuristic for this problem, commonly used in practice, is greedy iterative least squares (GILS). At each time period, GILS estimates the demand as a linear function of the price by applying least squares to the set of prior prices and realized demands. Then a price that maximizes the revenue, given the estimated demand function, is used for the next time period. The performance is measured by the regret, which is the expected revenue loss from the optimal (oracle) pricing policy when the demand function is known. Recently, den Boer and Zwart (2014) and Keskin and Zeevi (2014) demonstrated that GILS is sub-optimal. They introduced algorithms which integrate forced price dispersion with GILS and achieve asymptotically optimal performance. In this paper, we consider this dynamic pricing problem in a data-rich environment. In particular, we assume that the firm knows the expected demand under a particular price from historical data, and in each period, before setting the price, the firm has access to extra information (demand covariates) which may be predictive of the demand. We prove that in this setting GILS achieves asymptotically optimal regret of order $\log(T)$. We also show the following surprising result: in the original dynamic pricing problem of den Boer and Zwart (2014) and Keskin and Zeevi (2014), inclusion of any set of covariates in GILS as potential demand covariates (even though they could carry no information) would make GILS asymptotically optimal. We validate our results via extensive numerical simulations on synthetic and real data sets.

Belief-Propagation for Weighted b-Matchings on Arbitrary Graphs and its Relation to Linear Programs with Integer Solutions

We consider the general problem of finding the minimum weight $\bm$-matching on arbitrary graphs. We prove that, whenever the linear programming (LP) relaxation of the problem has no fractional solutions, then the belief propagation (BP) algorithm converges to the correct solution. We also show that when the LP relaxation has a fractional solution then the BP algorithm can be used to solve the LP relaxation. Our proof is based on the notion of graph covers and extends the analysis of (Bayati-Shah-Sharma 2005 and Huang-Jebara 2007}. These results are notable in the following regards: (1) It is one of a very small number of proofs showing correctness of BP without any constraint on the graph structure. (2) Variants of the proof work for both synchronous and asynchronous BP; it is the first proof of convergence and correctness of an asynchronous BP algorithm for a combinatorial optimization problem.

The dynamics of message passing on dense graphs, with applications to compressed sensing

Approximate message passing algorithms proved to be extremely effective in reconstructing sparse signals from a small number of incoherent linear measurements. Extensive numerical experiments further showed that their dynamics is accurately tracked by a simple one-dimensional iteration termed state evolution. In this paper we provide the first rigorous foundation to state evolution. We prove that indeed it holds asymptotically in the large system limit for sensing matrices with independent and identically distributed gaussian entries. While our focus is on message passing algorithms for compressed sensing, the analysis extends beyond this setting, to a general class of algorithms on dense graphs. In this context, state evolution plays the role that density evolution has for sparse graphs. The proof technique is fundamentally different from the standard approach to density evolution, in that it copes with large number of short loops in the underlying factor graph. It relies instead on a conditioning technique recently developed by Erwin Bolthausen in the context of spin glass theory.

Maximum Weight Matching via Max-Product Belief Propagation

Max-product "belief propagation" is an iterative, local, message-passing algorithm for finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment of a discrete probability distribution specified by a graphical model. Despite the spectacular success of the algorithm in many application areas such as iterative decoding, computer vision and combinatorial optimization which involve graphs with many cycles, theoretical results about both correctness and convergence of the algorithm are known in few cases (Weiss-Freeman Wainwright, Yeddidia-Weiss-Freeman, Richardson-Urbanke}. In this paper we consider the problem of finding the Maximum Weight Matching (MWM) in a weighted complete bipartite graph. We define a probability distribution on the bipartite graph whose MAP assignment corresponds to the MWM. We use the max-product algorithm for finding the MAP of this distribution or equivalently, the MWM on the bipartite graph. Even though the underlying bipartite graph has many short cycles, we find that surprisingly, the max-product algorithm always converges to the correct MAP assignment as long as the MAP assignment is unique. We provide a bound on the number of iterations required by the algorithm and evaluate the computational cost of the algorithm. We find that for a graph of size $n$, the computational cost of the algorithm scales as $O(n^3)$, which is the same as the computational cost of the best known algorithm. Finally, we establish the precise relation between the max-product algorithm and the celebrated {\em auction} algorithm proposed by Bertsekas. This suggests possible connections between dual algorithm and max-product algorithm for discrete optimization problems.