An Efficient Quasi-Random Sampling for Copulas

This paper examines an efficient method for quasi-random sampling of copulas in Monte Carlo computations. Traditional methods, like conditional distribution methods (CDM), have limitations when dealing with high-dimensional or implicit copulas, which refer to those that cannot be accurately represented by existing parametric copulas. Instead, this paper proposes the use of generative models, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), to generate quasi-random samples for any copula. GANs are a type of implicit generative models used to learn the distribution of complex data, thus facilitating easy sampling. In our study, GANs are employed to learn the mapping from a uniform distribution to copulas. Once this mapping is learned, obtaining quasi-random samples from the copula only requires inputting quasi-random samples from the uniform distribution. This approach offers a more flexible method for any copula. Additionally, we provide theoretical analysis of quasi-Monte Carlo estimators based on quasi-random samples of copulas. Through simulated and practical applications, particularly in the field of risk management, we validate the proposed method and demonstrate its superiority over various existing methods.

Fast Approximation of the Shapley Values Based on Order-of-Addition Experimental Designs

Shapley value is originally a concept in econometrics to fairly distribute both gains and costs to players in a coalition game. In the recent decades, its application has been extended to other areas such as marketing, engineering and machine learning. For example, it produces reasonable solutions for problems in sensitivity analysis, local model explanation towards the interpretable machine learning, node importance in social network, attribution models, etc. However, its heavy computational burden has been long recognized but rarely investigated. Specifically, in a $d$-player coalition game, calculating a Shapley value requires the evaluation of $d!$ or $2^d$ marginal contribution values, depending on whether we are taking the permutation or combination formulation of the Shapley value. Hence it becomes infeasible to calculate the Shapley value when $d$ is reasonably large. A common remedy is to take a random sample of the permutations to surrogate for the complete list of permutations. We find an advanced sampling scheme can be designed to yield much more accurate estimation of the Shapley value than the simple random sampling (SRS). Our sampling scheme is based on combinatorial structures in the field of design of experiments (DOE), particularly the order-of-addition experimental designs for the study of how the orderings of components would affect the output. We show that the obtained estimates are unbiased, and can sometimes deterministically recover the original Shapley value. Both theoretical and simulations results show that our DOE-based sampling scheme outperforms SRS in terms of estimation accuracy. Surprisingly, it is also slightly faster than SRS. Lastly, real data analysis is conducted for the C. elegans nervous system and the 9/11 terrorist network.