Bayes' Bluff: Opponent Modelling in Poker

Poker is a challenging problem for artificial intelligence, with non-deterministic dynamics, partial observability, and the added difficulty of unknown adversaries. Modelling all of the uncertainties in this domain is not an easy task. In this paper we present a Bayesian probabilistic model for a broad class of poker games, separating the uncertainty in the game dynamics from the uncertainty of the opponent's strategy. We then describe approaches to two key subproblems: (i) inferring a posterior over opponent strategies given a prior distribution and observations of their play, and (ii) playing an appropriate response to that distribution. We demonstrate the overall approach on a reduced version of poker using Dirichlet priors and then on the full game of Texas hold'em using a more informed prior. We demonstrate methods for playing effective responses to the opponent, based on the posterior.

Dyna-Style Planning with Linear Function Approximation and Prioritized Sweeping

We consider the problem of efficiently learning optimal control policies and value functions over large state spaces in an online setting in which estimates must be available after each interaction with the world. This paper develops an explicitly model-based approach extending the Dyna architecture to linear function approximation. Dynastyle planning proceeds by generating imaginary experience from the world model and then applying model-free reinforcement learning algorithms to the imagined state transitions. Our main results are to prove that linear Dyna-style planning converges to a unique solution independent of the generating distribution, under natural conditions. In the policy evaluation setting, we prove that the limit point is the least-squares (LSTD) solution. An implication of our results is that prioritized-sweeping can be soundly extended to the linear approximation case, backing up to preceding features rather than to preceding states. We introduce two versions of prioritized sweeping with linear Dyna and briefly illustrate their performance empirically on the Mountain Car and Boyan Chain problems.