Stochastic weather generators for high-frequency wind vector time series

Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale. Restricting to the month of June to minimize seasonality, this work develops a range of machine learning models for generating realistic time series of surface wind vectors at a site in Lamont, Oklahoma based on more than 30 years of high quality measurements at the minute time scale. Such a generator could be used as an input into models from a range of disciplines, notably for wind energy, but also wildfire spread and aviation, among others. The data show complex diurnal structures in both wind speed and direction that would be challenging to capture with standard time series models, so we consider a number of machine learning approaches to producing a stochastic wind generator based on time vector-quantized variational autoencoders. We consider generating a day's worth of data at a time and generating a day of wind vectors conditional on the previous day's winds. We also study methods for incorporating a discrete weather state variable in the generator. We evaluate the generators using a wide range of formal and informal methods. The best of these generators can capture many but not all of the complex features present in the observational data. In particular, the best of our approaches accurately mimic diurnal changes in wind volatility but struggle to match the observed distribution of extreme wind speeds.

Neural Networks for Parameter Estimation in Intractable Models

We propose to use deep learning to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. We show how to estimate parameters from max-stable processes, where inference is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets but simulation is straightforward. We use data from model simulations as input and train deep neural networks to learn statistical parameters. Our neural-network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. It serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.