Child Mortality Prediction in Bangladesh: A Decade-Long Validation Study

The predictive machine learning models for child mortality tend to be inaccurate when applied to future populations, since they suffer from look-ahead bias due to the randomization used in cross-validation. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from Bangladesh for 2011-2022, with n = 33,962, are used in this paper. We trained the model on (2011-2014) data, validated it on 2017 data, and tested it on 2022 data. Eight years after the initial test of the model, a genetic algorithm-based Neural Architecture Search found a single-layer neural architecture (with 64 units) to be superior to XGBoost (AUROC = 0.76 vs. 0.73; p < 0.01). Additionally, through a detailed fairness audit, we identified an overall "Socioeconomic Predictive Gradient," with a positive correlation between regional poverty level (r = -0.62) and the algorithm's AUC. In addition, we found that the model performed at its highest levels in the least affluent divisions (AUC 0.74) and decreased dramatically in the wealthiest divisions (AUC 0.66). These findings suggest that the model is identifying areas with the greatest need for intervention. Our model would identify approximately 1300 additional at-risk children annually than a Gradient Boosting model when screened at the 10% level and validated using SHAP values and Platt Calibration, and therefore provide a robust, production-ready computational phenotype for targeted maternal and child health interventions.

Green-NAS: A Global-Scale Multi-Objective Neural Architecture Search for Robust and Efficient Edge-Native Weather Forecasting

We introduce Green-NAS, a multi-objective NAS (neural architecture search) framework designed for low-resource environments using weather forecasting as a case study. By adhering to 'Green AI' principles, the framework explicitly minimizes computational energy costs and carbon footprints, prioritizing sustainable deployment over raw computational scale. The Green-NAS architecture search method is optimized for both model accuracy and efficiency to find lightweight models with high accuracy and very few model parameters; this is accomplished through an optimization process that simultaneously optimizes multiple objectives. Our best-performing model, Green-NAS-A, achieved an RMSE of 0.0988 (i.e., within 1.4% of our manually tuned baseline) using only 153k model parameters, which is 239 times fewer than other globally applied weather forecasting models, such as GraphCast. In addition, we also describe how the use of transfer learning will improve the weather forecasting accuracy by approximately 5.2%, in comparison to a naive approach of training a new model for each city, when there is limited historical weather data available for that city.

Pre-trained Encoders for Global Child Development: Transfer Learning Enables Deployment in Data-Scarce Settings

A large number of children experience preventable developmental delays each year, yet the deployment of machine learning in new countries has been stymied by a data bottleneck: reliable models require thousands of samples, while new programs begin with fewer than 100. We introduce the first pre-trained encoder for global child development, trained on 357,709 children across 44 countries using UNICEF survey data. With only 50 training samples, the pre-trained encoder achieves an average AUC of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.56-0.72), outperforming cold-start gradient boosting at 0.61 by 8-12% across regions. At N=500, the encoder achieves an AUC of 0.73. Zero-shot deployment to unseen countries achieves AUCs up to 0.84. We apply a transfer learning bound to explain why pre-training diversity enables few-shot generalization. These results establish that pre-trained encoders can transform the feasibility of ML for SDG 4.2.1 monitoring in resource-constrained settings.

The Depth Delusion: Why Transformers Should Be Wider, Not Deeper

Neural scaling laws describe how language model loss decreases with parameters and data, but treat architecture as interchangeable--a billion parameters could arise from a shallow-wide model (10 layers & 8,192 hidden dimension) or a deep-narrow one (80 layers & 2,048 hidden dimension). We propose architecture-conditioned scaling laws decomposing this dependence, finding that optimal depth scales as D* ~ C^0.12 while optimal width scales as W* ~ C^0.34, meaning width should grow 2.8x faster than depth. We discover a critical depth phenomenon: beyond D_crit ~ W^0.44 (sublinear in W), adding layers increases loss despite adding parameters--the Depth Delusion. Empirically, we validate these findings across 30 transformer architectures spanning 17M to 7B parameters, each trained on representative high-compute samples, achieving R^2 = 0.922. Our central finding: at 7B scale, a 64-layer model (6.38B params) underperforms a 32-layer model (6.86B params) by 0.12 nats, despite being significantly deeper. This demonstrates that optimal depth-width tradeoffs persist at the production scale.

Distributed Causality in the SDG Network: Evidence from Panel VAR and Conditional Independence Analysis

The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.

The Dependency Divide: An Interpretable Machine Learning Framework for Profiling Student Digital Satisfaction in the Bangladesh Context

Background: While digital access has expanded rapidly in resource-constrained contexts, satisfaction with digital learning platforms varies significantly among students with seemingly equal connectivity. Traditional digital divide frameworks fail to explain these variations. Purpose: This study introduces the "Dependency Divide", a novel framework proposing that highly engaged students become conditionally vulnerable to infrastructure failures, challenging assumptions that engagement uniformly benefits learners in post-access environments. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 396 university students in Bangladesh using a three-stage analytical approach: (1) stability-validated K-prototypes clustering to identify student profiles, (2) profile-specific Random Forest models with SHAP and ALE analysis to determine satisfaction drivers, and (3) formal interaction analysis with propensity score matching to test the Dependency Divide hypothesis. Results: Three distinct profiles emerged: Casually Engaged (58%), Efficient Learners (35%), and Hyper-Engaged (7%). A significant interaction between educational device time and internet reliability (\b{eta} = 0.033, p = 0.028) confirmed the Dependency Divide: engagement increased satisfaction only when infrastructure remained reliable. Hyper-Engaged students showed greatest vulnerability despite or because of their sophisticated digital workflows. Policy simulations demonstrated that targeted reliability improvements for high-dependency users yielded 2.06 times greater returns than uniform interventions. Conclusions: In fragile infrastructure contexts, capability can become liability. Digital transformation policies must prioritize reliability for dependency-prone users, establish contingency systems, and educate students about dependency risks rather than uniformly promoting engagement.