POCO: Scalable Neural Forecasting through Population Conditioning

Predicting future neural activity is a core challenge in modeling brain dynamics, with applications ranging from scientific investigation to closed-loop neurotechnology. While recent models of population activity emphasize interpretability and behavioral decoding, neural forecasting-particularly across multi-session, spontaneous recordings-remains underexplored. We introduce POCO, a unified forecasting model that combines a lightweight univariate forecaster with a population-level encoder to capture both neuron-specific and brain-wide dynamics. Trained across five calcium imaging datasets spanning zebrafish, mice, and C. elegans, POCO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at cellular resolution in spontaneous behaviors. After pre-training, POCO rapidly adapts to new recordings with minimal fine-tuning. Notably, POCO's learned unit embeddings recover biologically meaningful structure-such as brain region clustering-without any anatomical labels. Our comprehensive analysis reveals several key factors influencing performance, including context length, session diversity, and preprocessing. Together, these results position POCO as a scalable and adaptable approach for cross-session neural forecasting and offer actionable insights for future model design. By enabling accurate, generalizable forecasting models of neural dynamics across individuals and species, POCO lays the groundwork for adaptive neurotechnologies and large-scale efforts for neural foundation models.

Robust alignment of cross-session recordings of neural population activity by behaviour via unsupervised domain adaptation

Neural population activity relating to behaviour is assumed to be inherently low-dimensional despite the observed high dimensionality of data recorded using multi-electrode arrays. Therefore, predicting behaviour from neural population recordings has been shown to be most effective when using latent variable models. Over time however, the activity of single neurons can drift, and different neurons will be recorded due to movement of implanted neural probes. This means that a decoder trained to predict behaviour on one day performs worse when tested on a different day. On the other hand, evidence suggests that the latent dynamics underlying behaviour may be stable even over months and years. Based on this idea, we introduce a model capable of inferring behaviourally relevant latent dynamics from previously unseen data recorded from the same animal, without any need for decoder recalibration. We show that unsupervised domain adaptation combined with a sequential variational autoencoder, trained on several sessions, can achieve good generalisation to unseen data and correctly predict behaviour where conventional methods fail. Our results further support the hypothesis that behaviour-related neural dynamics are low-dimensional and stable over time, and will enable more effective and flexible use of brain computer interface technologies.