How Predicted Links Influence Network Evolution: Disentangling Choice and Algorithmic Feedback in Dynamic Graphs

Link prediction models are increasingly used to recommend interactions in evolving networks, yet their impact on network structure is typically assessed from static snapshots. In particular, observed homophily conflates intrinsic interaction tendencies with amplification effects induced by network dynamics and algorithmic feedback. We propose a temporal framework based on multivariate Hawkes processes that disentangles these two sources and introduce an instantaneous bias measure derived from interaction intensities, capturing current reinforcement dynamics beyond cumulative metrics. We provide a theoretical characterization of the stability and convergence of the induced dynamics, and experiments show that the proposed measure reliably reflects algorithmic feedback effects across different link prediction strategies.

TopoFair: Linking Topological Bias to Fairness in Link Prediction Benchmarks

Graph link prediction (LP) plays a critical role in socially impactful applications, such as job recommendation and friendship formation. Ensuring fairness in this task is thus essential. While many fairness-aware methods manipulate graph structures to mitigate prediction disparities, the topological biases inherent to social graph structures remain poorly understood and are often reduced to homophily alone. This undermines the generalization potential of fairness interventions and limits their applicability across diverse network topologies. In this work, we propose a novel benchmarking framework for fair LP, centered on the structural biases of the underlying graphs. We begin by reviewing and formalizing a broad taxonomy of topological bias measures relevant to fairness in graphs. In parallel, we introduce a flexible graph generation method that simultaneously ensures fidelity to real-world graph patterns and enables controlled variation across a wide spectrum of structural biases. We apply this framework to evaluate both classical and fairness-aware LP models across multiple use cases. Our results provide a fine-grained empirical analysis of the interactions between predictive fairness and structural biases. This new perspective reveals the sensitivity of fairness interventions to beyond-homophily biases and underscores the need for structurally grounded fairness evaluations in graph learning.