Multi-Agent Conformal Prediction with Personalized Statistical Validity

Uncertainty quantification is essential in high-stakes machine learning tasks. However, one of the principled solutions, conformal prediction, faces challenges under limited local calibration data, privacy constraints, and data heterogeneity. In multi-agent settings, existing works do not simultaneously and satisfactorily address these challenges with guarantees either limited to averages across agents or losing validity in heterogeneous settings. Hence, we propose personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP), a framework that combines local density ratio weighting with weighted quantile aggregation to correct for heterogeneity while preserving privacy. The method yields asymptotically valid marginal and calibration-conditional coverage guarantees for each participating agent and supports protocols with one-shot communication. Theoretical analysis presents an adjustment to the coverage variance, governed by an effective sample size expression, which is necessary in the context of weighted conformal prediction, and experiments on synthetic and real datasets show improved calibration quality over state-of-the-art federated conformal baselines.

Multi-Sensor Multi-Scan Radar Sensing of Multiple Extended Targets

We propose an efficient solution to the state estimation problem in multi-scan multi-sensor multiple extended target sensing scenarios. We first model the measurement process by a doubly inhomogeneous-generalized shot noise Cox process and then estimate the parameters using a jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. The proposed approach scales linearly in the number of measurements and can take spatial properties of the sensors into account, herein, sensor noise covariance, detection probability, and resolution. Numerical experiments using radar measurement data suggest that the algorithm offers improvements in high clutter scenarios with closely spaced targets over state-of-the-art clustering techniques used in existing multiple extended target tracking algorithms.