Behind the Screen: Investigating ChatGPT's Dark Personality Traits and Conspiracy Beliefs

ChatGPT is notorious for its intransparent behavior. This paper tries to shed light on this, providing an in-depth analysis of the dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Different psychological tests and questionnaires were employed, including the Dark Factor Test, the Mach-IV Scale, the Generic Conspiracy Belief Scale, and the Conspiracy Mentality Scale. The responses were analyzed computing average scores, standard deviations, and significance tests to investigate differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. For traits that have shown to be interdependent in human studies, correlations were considered. Additionally, system roles corresponding to groups that have shown distinct answering behavior in the corresponding questionnaires were applied to examine the models' ability to reflect characteristics associated with these roles in their responses. Dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs were not particularly pronounced in either model with little differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. However, GPT-4 showed a pronounced tendency to believe in information withholding. This is particularly intriguing given that GPT-4 is trained on a significantly larger dataset than GPT-3.5. Apparently, in this case an increased data exposure correlates with a greater belief in the control of information. An assignment of extreme political affiliations increased the belief in conspiracy theories. Test sequencing affected the models' responses and the observed correlations, indicating a form of contextual memory.

Evaluating tree-based imputation methods as an alternative to MICE PMM for drawing inference in empirical studies

Dealing with missing data is an important problem in statistical analysis that is often addressed with imputation procedures. The performance and validity of such methods are of great importance for their application in empirical studies. While the prevailing method of Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) is considered standard in the social science literature, the increase in complex datasets may require more advanced approaches based on machine learning. In particular, tree-based imputation methods have emerged as very competitive approaches. However, the performance and validity are not completely understood, particularly compared to the standard MICE PMM. This is especially true for inference in linear models. In this study, we investigate the impact of various imputation methods on coefficient estimation, Type I error, and power, to gain insights that can help empirical researchers deal with missingness more effectively. We explore MICE PMM alongside different tree-based methods, such as MICE with Random Forest (RF), Chained Random Forests with and without PMM (missRanger), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (MIXGBoost), conducting a realistic simulation study using the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) as the original data source. Our results reveal that Random Forest-based imputations, especially MICE RF and missRanger with PMM, consistently perform better in most scenarios. Standard MICE PMM shows partially increased bias and overly conservative test decisions, particularly with non-true zero coefficients. Our results thus underscore the potential advantages of tree-based imputation methods, albeit with a caveat that all methods perform worse with an increased missingness, particularly missRanger.

The Self-Perception and Political Biases of ChatGPT

This contribution analyzes the self-perception and political biases of OpenAI's Large Language Model ChatGPT. Taking into account the first small-scale reports and studies that have emerged, claiming that ChatGPT is politically biased towards progressive and libertarian points of view, this contribution aims to provide further clarity on this subject. For this purpose, ChatGPT was asked to answer the questions posed by the political compass test as well as similar questionnaires that are specific to the respective politics of the G7 member states. These eight tests were repeated ten times each and revealed that ChatGPT seems to hold a bias towards progressive views. The political compass test revealed a bias towards progressive and libertarian views, with the average coordinates on the political compass being (-6.48, -5.99) (with (0, 0) the center of the compass, i.e., centrism and the axes ranging from -10 to 10), supporting the claims of prior research. The political questionnaires for the G7 member states indicated a bias towards progressive views but no significant bias between authoritarian and libertarian views, contradicting the findings of prior reports, with the average coordinates being (-3.27, 0.58). In addition, ChatGPT's Big Five personality traits were tested using the OCEAN test and its personality type was queried using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) test. Finally, the maliciousness of ChatGPT was evaluated using the Dark Factor test. These three tests were also repeated ten times each, revealing that ChatGPT perceives itself as highly open and agreeable, has the Myers-Briggs personality type ENFJ, and is among the 15% of test-takers with the least pronounced dark traits.

RODD: Robust Outlier Detection in Data Cubes

Data cubes are multidimensional databases, often built from several separate databases, that serve as flexible basis for data analysis. Surprisingly, outlier detection on data cubes has not yet been treated extensively. In this work, we provide the first framework to evaluate robust outlier detection methods in data cubes (RODD). We introduce a novel random forest-based outlier detection approach (RODD-RF) and compare it with more traditional methods based on robust location estimators. We propose a general type of test data and examine all methods in a simulation study. Moreover, we apply ROOD-RF to real world data. The results show that RODD-RF can lead to improved outlier detection.

Comparing statistical and machine learning methods for time series forecasting in data-driven logistics -- A simulation study

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various forecasting methods in terms of out of the box forecasting performance on a broad set of simulated time series. We simulate various linear and non-linear time series and look at the one step forecast performance of statistical learning methods.

Dataset Bias in Human Activity Recognition

When creating multi-channel time-series datasets for Human Activity Recognition (HAR), researchers are faced with the issue of subject selection criteria. It is unknown what physical characteristics and/or soft-biometrics, such as age, height, and weight, need to be taken into account to train a classifier to achieve robustness towards heterogeneous populations in the training and testing data. This contribution statistically curates the training data to assess to what degree the physical characteristics of humans influence HAR performance. We evaluate the performance of a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network on two HAR datasets that vary in the sensors, activities, and recording for time-series HAR. The training data is intentionally biased with respect to human characteristics to determine the features that impact motion behaviour. The evaluations brought forth the impact of the subjects' characteristics on HAR. Thus, providing insights regarding the robustness of the classifier with respect to heterogeneous populations. The study is a step forward in the direction of fair and trustworthy artificial intelligence by attempting to quantify representation bias in multi-channel time series HAR data.

Learning Causal Graphs in Manufacturing Domains using Structural Equation Models

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships. Since they are only partially known they pose a challenge to effective process control. In this work we present how Structural Equation Models can be used for deriving cause-and-effect relationships from the combination of prior knowledge and process data in the manufacturing domain. Compared to existing applications, we do not assume linear relationships leading to more informative results.

Estimating Gaussian Copulas with Missing Data

In this work we present a rigorous application of the Expectation Maximization algorithm to determine the marginal distributions and the dependence structure in a Gaussian copula model with missing data. We further show how to circumvent a priori assumptions on the marginals with semiparametric modelling. The joint distribution learned through this algorithm is considerably closer to the underlying distribution than existing methods.

Machine Learning for Multi-Output Regression: When should a holistic multivariate approach be preferred over separate univariate ones?

Tree-based ensembles such as the Random Forest are modern classics among statistical learning methods. In particular, they are used for predicting univariate responses. In case of multiple outputs the question arises whether we separately fit univariate models or directly follow a multivariate approach. For the latter, several possibilities exist that are, e.g. based on modified splitting or stopping rules for multi-output regression. In this work we compare these methods in extensive simulations to help in answering the primary question when to use multivariate ensemble techniques.

On the Relation between Prediction and Imputation Accuracy under Missing Covariates

Missing covariates in regression or classification problems can prohibit the direct use of advanced tools for further analysis. Recent research has realized an increasing trend towards the usage of modern Machine Learning algorithms for imputation. It originates from their capability of showing favourable prediction accuracy in different learning problems. In this work, we analyze through simulation the interaction between imputation accuracy and prediction accuracy in regression learning problems with missing covariates when Machine Learning based methods for both, imputation and prediction are used. In addition, we explore imputation performance when using statistical inference procedures in prediction settings, such as coverage rates of (valid) prediction intervals. Our analysis is based on empirical datasets provided by the UCI Machine Learning repository and an extensive simulation study.