Path Signatures for Seizure Forecasting

Forecasting the state of a system from an observed time series is the subject of research in many domains, such as computational neuroscience. Here, the prediction of epileptic seizures from brain measurements is an unresolved problem. There are neither complete models describing underlying brain dynamics, nor do individual patients exhibit a single seizure onset pattern, which complicates the development of a `one-size-fits-all' solution. Based on a longitudinal patient data set, we address the automated discovery and quantification of statistical features (biomarkers) that can be used to forecast seizures in a patient-specific way. We use existing and novel feature extraction algorithms, in particular the path signature, a recent development in time series analysis. Of particular interest is how this set of complex, nonlinear features performs compared to simpler, linear features on this task. Our inference is based on statistical classification algorithms with in-built subset selection to discern time series with and without an impending seizure while selecting only a small number of relevant features. This study may be seen as a step towards a generalisable pattern recognition pipeline for time series in a broader context.

Brain Model State Space Reconstruction Using an LSTM Neural Network

Objective Kalman filtering has previously been applied to track neural model states and parameters, particularly at the scale relevant to EEG. However, this approach lacks a reliable method to determine the initial filter conditions and assumes that the distribution of states remains Gaussian. This study presents an alternative, data-driven method to track the states and parameters of neural mass models (NMMs) from EEG recordings using deep learning techniques, specifically an LSTM neural network. Approach An LSTM filter was trained on simulated EEG data generated by a neural mass model using a wide range of parameters. With an appropriately customised loss function, the LSTM filter can learn the behaviour of NMMs. As a result, it can output the state vector and parameters of NMMs given observation data as the input. Main Results Test results using simulated data yielded correlations with R squared of around 0.99 and verified that the method is robust to noise and can be more accurate than a nonlinear Kalman filter when the initial conditions of the Kalman filter are not accurate. As an example of real-world application, the LSTM filter was also applied to real EEG data that included epileptic seizures, and revealed changes in connectivity strength parameters at the beginnings of seizures. Significance Tracking the state vector and parameters of mathematical brain models is of great importance in the area of brain modelling, monitoring, imaging and control. This approach has no need to specify the initial state vector and parameters, which is very difficult to do in practice because many of the variables being estimated cannot be measured directly in physiological experiments. This method may be applied using any neural mass model and, therefore, provides a general, novel, efficient approach to estimate brain model variables that are often difficult to measure.