Southern Ocean Dynamics Under Climate Change: New Knowledge Through Physics-Guided Machine Learning

Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are not well understood, in part due to the difficulty of characterizing and tracking changes in ocean physics in complex models. To understand changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, we extend the method Tracking global Heating with Ocean Regimes (THOR) to a mesoscale eddy permitting climate model and identify regions of the ocean characterized by similar physics, called dynamical regimes, using readily accessible fields from climate models. To this end, we cluster grid cells into dynamical regimes and train an ensemble of neural networks to predict these regimes and track them under climate change. Finally, we leverage this new knowledge to elucidate the dynamics of regime shifts. Here we illustrate the value of this high-resolution version of THOR, which allows for mesoscale turbulence, with a case study of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its interactions with the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. In this region, THOR specifically reveals a shift in dynamical regime under climate change driven by changes in wind stress and interactions with bathymetry. Using this knowledge to guide further exploration, we find that as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current shifts north under intensifying wind stress, the dominant dynamical role of bathymetry weakens and the flow strengthens.

Accelerated wind farm yaw and layout optimisation with multi-fidelity deep transfer learning wake models

Wind farm modelling has been an area of rapidly increasing interest with numerous analytical as well as computational-based approaches developed to extend the margins of wind farm efficiency and maximise power production. In this work, we present the novel ML framework WakeNet, which can reproduce generalised 2D turbine wake velocity fields at hub-height over a wide range of yaw angles, wind speeds and turbulence intensities (TIs), with a mean accuracy of 99.8% compared to the solution calculated using the state-of-the-art wind farm modelling software FLORIS. As the generation of sufficient high-fidelity data for network training purposes can be cost-prohibitive, the utility of multi-fidelity transfer learning has also been investigated. Specifically, a network pre-trained on the low-fidelity Gaussian wake model is fine-tuned in order to obtain accurate wake results for the mid-fidelity Curl wake model. The robustness and overall performance of WakeNet on various wake steering control and layout optimisation scenarios has been validated through power-gain heatmaps, obtaining at least 90% of the power gained through optimisation performed with FLORIS directly. We also demonstrate that when utilising the Curl model, WakeNet is able to provide similar power gains to FLORIS, two orders of magnitude faster (e.g. 10 minutes vs 36 hours per optimisation case). The wake evaluation time of wakeNet when trained on a high-fidelity CFD dataset is expected to be similar, thus further increasing computational time gains. These promising results show that generalised wake modelling with ML tools can be accurate enough to contribute towards active yaw and layout optimisation, while producing realistic optimised configurations at a fraction of the computational cost, hence making it feasible to perform real-time active yaw control as well as robust optimisation under uncertainty.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Bayesian Neural Networks: Towards trustworthy predictions of ocean dynamics

The trustworthiness of neural networks is often challenged because they lack the ability to express uncertainty and explain their skill. This can be problematic given the increasing use of neural networks in high stakes decision-making such as in climate change applications. We address both issues by successfully implementing a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), where parameters are distributions rather than deterministic, and applying novel implementations of explainable AI (XAI) techniques. The uncertainty analysis from the BNN provides a comprehensive overview of the prediction more suited to practitioners' needs than predictions from a classical neural network. Using a BNN means we can calculate the entropy (i.e. uncertainty) of the predictions and determine if the probability of an outcome is statistically significant. To enhance trustworthiness, we also spatially apply the two XAI techniques of Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values. These XAI methods reveal the extent to which the BNN is suitable and/or trustworthy. Using two techniques gives a more holistic view of BNN skill and its uncertainty, as LRP considers neural network parameters, whereas SHAP considers changes to outputs. We verify these techniques using comparison with intuition from physical theory. The differences in explanation identify potential areas where new physical theory guided studies are needed.