Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation

In this work, we revisit the problem of active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where at each round one must decide the query probability of the ground-truth label upon observing the covariates of a sample. Furthermore, if the label is not queried, the prediction from a machine learning model is used instead. Prior work proposed an elegant scheme that determines the query probability by combining an uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability that encodes a soft constraint on the query probability. We explored different values of the mixing parameter and observed an intriguing empirical pattern: the smallest confidence width tends to occur when the weight on the constant probability is close to one, thereby reducing the influence of the uncertainty-based component. Motivated by this observation, we develop a non-asymptotic analysis of the estimator and establish a data-dependent bound on its confidence interval. Our analysis further suggests that when a no-regret learning approach is used to determine the query probability and control this bound, the query probability converges to the constraint of the max value of the query probability when it is chosen obliviously to the current covariates. We also conduct simulations that corroborate these theoretical findings.

Lions and Muons: Optimization via Stochastic Frank-Wolfe

Stochastic Frank-Wolfe is a classical optimization method for solving constrained optimization problems. On the other hand, recent optimizers such as Lion and Muon have gained quite significant popularity in deep learning. In this work, we provide a unifying perspective by interpreting these seemingly disparate methods through the lens of Stochastic Frank-Wolfe. Specifically, we show that Lion and Muon with weight decay can be viewed as special instances of a Stochastic Frank-Wolfe, and we establish their convergence guarantees in terms of the Frank-Wolfe gap, a standard stationarity measure in non-convex optimization for Frank-Wolfe methods. We further find that convergence to this gap implies convergence to a KKT point of the original problem under a norm constraint for Lion and Muon. Moreover, motivated by recent empirical findings that stochastic gradients in modern machine learning tasks often exhibit heavy-tailed distributions, we extend Stochastic Frank-Wolfe to settings with heavy-tailed noise by developing two robust variants with strong theoretical guarantees, which in turn yields new variants of Lion and Muon.