Parameter estimation for land-surface models using machine learning libraries

The Neural Networks for Partial Differential Equations (NN4PDEs) approach is used to determine the parameters of a simple land-surface model using PyTorch's backpropagation engine. In order to test the inverse model, a synthetic dataset is created by running the model in forward mode with known parameter values to create soil temperature time series that can be used as observations for the inverse model. We show that it is not possible to obtain a reliable parameter estimation using a single observed soil temperature time series. Using measurements at two depths, reliable parameter estimates can be obtained although it is not possible to differentiate between latent and sensible heat fluxes. We apply the inverse model to urban flux tower data in Phoenix, United States, and show that the thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity, and the combined sensible-latent heat transfer coefficient can be reliably estimated using an observed value for the effective surface albedo. The resulting model accurately predicts the outgoing longwave radiation, conductive soil fluxes and the combined sensible-latent heat fluxes.

Machine Learning Emulation of Urban Land Surface Processes

Can we improve the modeling of urban land surface processes with machine learning (ML)? A prior comparison of urban land surface models (ULSMs) found that no single model is 'best' at predicting all common surface fluxes. Here, we develop an urban neural network (UNN) trained on the mean predicted fluxes from 22 ULSMs at one site. The UNN emulates the mean output of ULSMs accurately. When compared to a reference ULSM (Town Energy Balance; TEB), the UNN has greater accuracy relative to flux observations, less computational cost, and requires fewer input parameters. When coupled to the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model using TensorFlow bindings, WRF-UNN is stable and more accurate than the reference WRF-TEB. Although the application is currently constrained by the training data (1 site), we show a novel approach to improve the modeling of surface fluxes by combining the strengths of several ULSMs into one using ML.