Materials-Discovery Workflows Guided by Symbolic Regression: Identifying Acid-Stable Oxides for Electrocatalysis

The efficiency of active learning (AL) approaches to identify materials with desired properties relies on the knowledge of a few parameters describing the property. However, these parameters are unknown if the property is governed by a high intricacy of many atomistic processes. Here, we develop an AL workflow based on the sure-independence screening and sparsifying operator (SISSO) symbolic-regression approach. SISSO identifies the few, key parameters correlated with a given materials property via analytical expressions, out of many offered primary features. Crucially, we train ensembles of SISSO models in order to quantify mean predictions and their uncertainty, enabling the use of SISSO in AL. By combining bootstrap sampling to obtain training datasets with Monte-Carlo feature dropout, the high prediction errors observed by a single SISSO model are improved. Besides, the feature dropout procedure alleviates the overconfidence issues observed in the widely used bagging approach. We demonstrate the SISSO-guided AL workflow by identifying acid-stable oxides for water splitting using high-quality DFT-HSE06 calculations. From a pool of 1470 materials, 12 acid-stable materials are identified in only 30 AL iterations. The materials property maps provided by SISSO along with the uncertainty estimates reduce the risk of missing promising portions of the materials space that were overlooked in the initial, possibly biased dataset.

From Prediction to Action: Critical Role of Performance Estimation for Machine-Learning-Driven Materials Discovery

Materials discovery driven by statistical property models is an iterative decision process, during which an initial data collection is extended with new data proposed by a model-informed acquisition function--with the goal to maximize a certain "reward" over time, such as the maximum property value discovered so far. While the materials science community achieved much progress in developing property models that predict well on average with respect to the training distribution, this form of in-distribution performance measurement is not directly coupled with the discovery reward. This is because an iterative discovery process has a shifting reward distribution that is over-proportionally determined by the model performance for exceptional materials. We demonstrate this problem using the example of bulk modulus maximization among double perovskite oxides. We find that the in-distribution predictive performance suggests random forests as superior to Gaussian process regression, while the results are inverse in terms of the discovery rewards. We argue that the lack of proper performance estimation methods from pre-computed data collections is a fundamental problem for improving data-driven materials discovery, and we propose a novel such estimator that, in contrast to na\"ive reward estimation, successfully predicts Gaussian processes with the "expected improvement" acquisition function as the best out of four options in our demonstrational study for double perovskites. Importantly, it does so without requiring the over thousand ab initio computations that were needed to confirm this prediction.